Although oil prices have retreated from their wartime highs, a widening transportation crisis in the crude market indicates this may not prevent continued consumer pain. Energy expenses have dominated investor concerns for much of this year as the conflict has persisted.
Brent crude, the global benchmark, has fluctuated recently, hovering near $105 per barrel this week as traders balanced supply disruptions against prospects for a war resolution.
However, energy specialists are no longer focused on an oil supply deficit — instead, a shipping crisis has captured increased attention lately, according to crude market analysts.
While shipping expenses are typically considered secondary to oil prices in determining energy costs, that dynamic has shifted recently as tanker rates and diesel prices have surged, reflecting the market’s increased premium for moving oil from the Middle East and diminished refining capacity for fuel production.
For consumers, this has fundamentally altered the oil supply cost equation — suggesting energy costs could remain elevated even if oil prices decline from current levels, energy experts say.
Rates for Very Large Crude Carriers, large tankers commonly used in the Persian Gulf, have more than quadrupled over the past year, climbing from roughly $50,000 daily in late 2025 to over $200,000 daily in October, according to shipping intelligence site Fearnpulse.
The cost of VLCC voyages from the Persian Gulf to the Far East has jumped from under $2 per barrel to over $30 per barrel year-to-date, according to a separate BCA Research estimate.
Diesel, a refined petroleum product powering ships and other transport, has also worsened the situation. Diesel prices remain near record highs, at approximately $6.29 per gallon this week, AAA data shows.
Some vessels traversing the Middle East are also being compelled to take longer routes due to the blockade of the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, BCA said.
Meanwhile, recent attacks have diminished the global supply of operational oil tankers. The world has lost approximately 20 oil tankers in the past two weeks, according to an estimate from HFI Research, a contrarian energy research firm.
“The recovery in Middle Eastern crude exports has come at the cost of a surge in transportation expenses, which is creating major dislocations in global crude markets,” BCA Research wrote in a client note.
“While the surge in dark transits through the Strait of Hormuz has eased tightness in global crude supplies, it is too early to declare the all-clear for oil markets,” the firm said regarding how transportation issues could override relief from increased exports.
Oil flows from the Gulf have exceeded expectations, reaching roughly 81% of pre-war norms in September, according to Kpler data. However, energy inflation accelerated significantly in September, rising 5.2% over the month, per the latest consumer price index.
The surge in transportation costs means an additional $35-$40 should be factored into the price per barrel of oil, according to Helima Croft, global head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets.
She cited Trafigura’s recent charter of the Alexandros, a large oil tanker slated to travel from the US Gulf Coast to China, which recently jumped to $76 million from the typical rate of $7 million to $10 million, a person familiar with the matter told CNBC this month.
“We’re in a transportation crisis,” Croft said, speaking to CNBC about supply and price pressures in the oil market. “The shortage is really now in ships, in the capacity to move this product to refineries.”
Shipping challenges also directly impact oil prices, pushing up energy costs.
Last month, Kpler warned that crude could climb as high as $150 per barrel, citing pressures from the diesel market and disrupted flows in the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz.
HFI Research suggested Brent crude could reach as high as $135 per barrel by early November, citing limited tanker supply and higher rates as factors exerting upward pressure on prices.
“If the current escalation continues (multiple tankers attacked daily) and the Oman Lane flow slowdown persists, I see Brent reaching $133 to $135,” HFI wrote in a recent note.