For decades, conventional wisdom held that a college degree was the most reliable route to stable work. Yet in New York City, emerging data suggests this may no longer hold true.
The jobless gap between young New Yorkers holding degrees and those without has sharply closed; at points this year, non-graduates even posted a marginally lower unemployment rate — a possible indicator that AI is encroaching on entry-level white-collar positions.
Themoneytimes examined the 12-month moving average of unemployment for 22- to 27-year-olds with and without degrees in the NYC metro area, drawing on Current Population Survey data via IPUMS.
In June, both groups — young adults without degrees and those with a bachelor’s or higher — registered identical 7.7% unemployment. By September, the rate for non-degree holders climbed to 8.1%, while degree holders sat at 7.3%.
A May report from NYC Comptroller Mark Levine called this the “first time on record” that young adults with a bachelor’s degree or higher faced a slightly higher jobless rate than those without one.
This unprecedented reversal follows rising unemployment among recent grads and falling joblessness among same-age non-graduates — a group that has “historically been relatively high,” the report notes.
The erosion of New York’s degree advantage arrives amid a low-hire, low-fire economy with minimal layoffs but fewer openings — particularly in AI-affected sectors like tech, where entry-level postings have retreated.
“Technical skills — many now replaced by AI — have grown less critical, while soft skills and firm- or industry-specific knowledge have gained importance,” the Comptroller’s report states. This shift hits young workers hardest, since they lack accumulated institutional knowledge. On X, Levine called the trend “one more possible sign that AI is already impacting employment in NYC.”
This coincides with growing skepticism about college’s value, especially in the AI era. An October Gallup poll found a record-low 31% of Americans view college as “very important,” while those calling it “not too important” rose by a similar margin — a decline across all demographics, even those traditionally valuing degrees most.
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Rising tuition costs may partly drive this sentiment shift, per Gallup. Yet even if AI complicates job searches, the college wage premium persists — younger workers may simply need more time to reach those higher earnings.
Are you a young worker newly entering the labor market? Share your experience with a reporter at mros@themoneytimes.com or jkaplan@themoneytimes.com