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Every spring, in this always-precarious homestretch of the Kentucky Derby preps, we know approximately half the class, or at least we may have a good idea where they’re headed. And we may, if we have paid proper attention in the last year’s better meetings, feel like we might know or at least suspect who the likely suspects are in the other half. Despite that, the last five hundred-point races hold some surprises, and tomorrow’s $1.25-million Arkansas Derby is definitely looking like it will live up to that bill.