Kevin Warsh is clocking in for his third Federal Reserve meeting as chair — and America is on hike watch.
The central bank’s September decision comes alongside escalating tariff policies from the White House, an ongoing war in Iran, and renewed fears that AI will upend the job market.
Business Insider is following the news, including economists’ insights, market moves, and what the interest rate call means for consumers. Follow along for updates.
On hike watch
So far this summer, Warsh and the committee have opted to hold rates steady. Powell’s FOMC made the same calls earlier this year. The last time the Fed hiked rates was July 2023.
CME FedWatch, a tool that predicts rate decisions based on market moves, is showing a 92.5% chance of a quarter-point hike as of Wednesday morning.
Warsh’s first big test
Good morning, and welcome to Fed Day! With stubborn inflation and volatile global oil prices, Fed chair Warsh must decide which side of the central bank’s dual mandate feels most urgent: stable prices or maximum employment.
A rate hike could help temper inflation, making basic goods more affordable for consumers and helping to steady the economy. However, higher rates risk slowing the job market and making it more difficult for Americans to buy homes and start businesses. Wednesday’s rate call will be a test of priorities for Warsh and the Federal Open Market Committee.