Persian Gulf oil exports have mostly returned to their 2025 average, yet crude prices stay elevated.
On Thursday, Brent crude futures hovered near $97 a barrel, following a spike during the Iran conflict when strikes on energy facilities and concerns over Strait of Hormuz shipping unsettled global markets.
Goldman Sachs analysts noted in a Tuesday report that the rebound in Gulf oil shipments has exceeded the drop in oil prices.
Goldman estimates show Persian Gulf oil exports hit 23.3 million barrels per day last week, about equal to the 2025 average after a September doubling.
Increased flows through the Strait of Hormuz, including ship-to-ship transfers, fueled much of the recovery, even as a drone strike on Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline last month and the Houthis’ ongoing blockade of Saudi shipments via the Bab al-Mandab Strait persisted.
Saudi Arabia spearheaded the rebound, with exports surpassing the 2025 average after cargoes were rerouted to eastern ports, Goldman’s analysts wrote. Iranian exports, meanwhile, dropped below 20% of their 2025 average.
The rebound has been concentrated in crude oil.
Goldman estimates crude exports from the Persian Gulf have risen to 108% of the 2025 average, while diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel shipments linger at roughly half their typical level.
The bank’s analysts blamed the disparity on refinery outages that remain well above seasonal norms and the higher risks of moving refined fuels, which are more flammable than crude.
Goldman said oil prices stay high because traders continue to factor in the risk of additional attacks on energy infrastructure.
The bank also highlighted unusually low global oil inventories, noting buyers are motivated to rebuild stockpiles as geopolitical risks persist.
Goldman kept its forecast for Brent to ease to $85 a barrel by year-end and $80 in 2027, citing the Gulf export recovery and softer Chinese import demand.
“That said, we still worry about renewed potential escalation that damages more energy infrastructure, which could cause significant upside to prices,” the analysts wrote.
Want more Themoneytimes in your news feed?
Add Themoneytimes in Google so our reporting is easier to find when you’re searching for what matters.