The NFC North may be the most wide open division in the NFL. Based on the way the teams closed the 2022 season, many of the experts believe the Detroit Lions are the team to beat, and the Green Bay Packers are likely to finish at the bottom of the division since they don’t have Aaron Rodgers any more.
The Minnesota Vikings may have been 13-4 last season, but those same experts have rejected the idea that they will come close to repeating that record – let alone showing improvement in 2023. The Chicago Bears were a last-place team a year ago, but there is hope that Justin Fields will lead this team to a winning record.
Nearly all these assessments are questionable, starting with the Lions.
While they closed the year by winning 8 of their last 10 games, this team may have the worst defense of any of the division teams. That was certainly the case last year when the Lions ranked 32nd in yardage allowed. Unless Aidan Hutchinson (9.5 sacks) can turn into Micah Parsons and defensive back C.J. Gardner-Johnson becomes an elite cover man, this defense is no better than it was a year ago.
The rest of the football world is likely to see this September 7, when the Lions open the season against the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes has been talking up the Lions throughout the summer to hype up this game, but the Chiefs are likely to put 35 points or more on the board and expose Dan Campbell’s defense as a substandard unit.
On the other hand, the Packers have been largely dismissed because they don’t have a world-class quarterback running the show. Aaron Rodgers was a brilliant leader for this team, and he may have even exceeded his predecessor Brett Favre. While Rodgers is almost certainly the league’s premier diva, he is a remarkably accurate passer with sensational timing and the athleticism needed to get away from the rush. His presence on the New York Jets is likely to result in a dramatic increase to that team’s win total.
Can Jordan Love fill a position that was manned by back-to-back Hall of Famers? Based on his performance during the offseason and the first two preseason games against the Bengals and Patriots, Love should be an adequate quarterback.
Nobody is talking about a superstar-level performance, but he can get the ball downfield to receivers Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs, and he has an excellent running back in Aaron Jones.
The strength of the Packers – at least compared to the other teams in the division – is the defense. This unit was in the middle of the pack last year, ranking 17th in yards allowed. The Packers will start multiple first-round draft choices, and they have dynamic players in defensive lineman Kenny Clark, outside linebacker Rashan Gary and an elite corner in Jaire Alexander.
As long as the offense doesn’t self-destruct and keep the defense on the field for 35-plus minutes per game, the Packers have a chance to start the season successfully. They open with the Bears, Falcons, Saints and Lions, and that could allow them to set the tone in the division.
The Vikings may have outsmarted themselves by cutting ties with Dalvin Cook and turning over the running game to Alexander Mattison. Cook remains one of the most explosive backs in the league, and he should complement Rodgers very well on the Jets.
Mattison was outstanding in his role as the No. 2 running back but matching what Cook did seems to be a tall order. Mattison can run between the tackles and has the strength to be successful on short-yardage plays, but he is not likely to hit home runs the way Cook did.
The likelihood is the defense will be better than it has been under defensive coordinator Brian Flores, but the talent level on that side of the ball is questionable.
The Bears have hopes of getting better, but the early indication is Fields may continue to struggle with his accuracy on short- and medium-range passes.
Head coach Matt Eberflus may hope that Fields does not have to run as often as he did last year when he gained 1,143 yards on 160 carries and scored 8 rushing touchdowns, but the offensive line is not likely to show improvement.
The same can be said for a defense that lacks playmakers.