President Donald Trump is encountering constraints on his ability to reduce soaring gasoline costs before the upcoming midterm elections.
Across the nation, Trump has been using social media and campaign rallies to tell voters that gasoline prices—a key issue for Americans facing affordability challenges—will soon drop.
At the White House on Friday, Trump pointed to a time when he saw gasoline prices under $2 per gallon in Iowa before the US and Israel launched surprise strikes on Iran in February. ‘We’ll be down to those levels soon,’ he declared.
However, current data and global conflict trends suggest a different outlook.
According to AAA, the average price of regular gasoline in the US stood at $4.36 per gallon on Sunday, up from $3.09 a year earlier. Diesel prices have also surged, hitting $6.28 per gallon earlier this month.
Trump lifted fuel export sanctions on Russia this week in an attempt to increase diesel supply and lower prices, drawing reactions from both allies and adversaries. Hours later, Ukraine attacked a Russian oil depot.
Sunday morning, Trump made another bid to stabilize oil markets by proclaiming an ‘ENERGY CEASEFIRE’ between Russia and Ukraine on Truth Social.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy posted on X that although he backs a ceasefire, the agreement was new to him. He also reported that a Russian drone hit a power plant in Kyiv on Sunday.
Meanwhile, on Saturday, an oil tanker hit a mine and caught fire in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint where oil shipments have dwindled as Iran asserts control—a major factor driving up oil prices and gasoline costs.
The conflict involving the US, Israel, and Iran is widening as Iranian proxies strike Saudi Arabia—a US ally—and its oil facilities. Houthi rebels backed by Iran have extended their grip along the Red Sea coast and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a vital route for Saudi oil exports.
Last month, the group launched an assault from southeastern Iraq on a major Saudi oil pipeline, compelling Saudi Arabia to temporarily halt its operations.
A Saturday assault by Houthi fighters on King Khalid International Airport resulted in 12 fatalities and over 300 injuries. Secretary of State Marco Rubio reported that one American was among the dead, prompting authorities to temporarily close the airport.
At this pace, it seems unlikely that oil prices will drop enough to ease the burden of high gasoline costs for Americans by the time they cast their ballots in November.