Experts say President Donald Trump’s recent acquisition of millions of barrels of Venezuelan oil is unlikely to bring down gas prices for American drivers anytime soon.
In a Truth Social post on Friday, Trump claimed the U.S. has secured majority control of over 65 billion barrels of Venezuelan oil, predicting it would “substantially” lower fuel costs.
“This Historic Transaction MORE THAN DOUBLES American Oil Reserves, greatly increases our Oil Supply, and will substantially lower Gas Prices for all Americans, long into the future,” Trump wrote.
On Sunday, Trump added that some of the oil would be allocated to “fill up the strategic national reserves,” which have fallen to a 40-year low amid the ongoing U.S. tensions with Iran.
However, analysts argue the deal won’t meaningfully impact gas prices in the near term, pointing to Venezuela’s underdeveloped oil infrastructure.
The U.S. captured Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro in a surprise overnight operation in January. Following the raid, Trump stated that changing leadership was essential to stopping the flow of drugs into the United States. He accused Maduro of using Venezuela’s oil sector — which the Trump administration claimed the U.S. built and intended to reclaim — to finance narco-terrorism and other criminal activities.
Here’s what industry experts are saying about the U.S. acquisition of Venezuelan oil.
Patrick De Haan, petroleum analyst
Patrick De Haan, a petroleum analyst and head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, was similarly skeptical that Trump’s deal would deliver meaningful relief at the pump in the near future.
While Venezuela may hold tens of billions of barrels of oil underground, actually bringing that crude to market would require billions in investment and years of work, De Haan said.
“Drilling and pumping that oil will take a very long time,” De Haan said on X. “Changes to fuel prices won’t happen overnight or even in months.”
Rory Johnston, oil market researcher
Rory Johnston, an oil market researcher and founder of Commodity Context, said Trump’s announcement conflates the amount of oil beneath the ground with the amount that can realistically reach the market.
Johnston, speaking on Canadian network CBC on Sunday, said Venezuela’s vast reserves don’t immediately translate to increased global oil supply. Extracting significantly more crude would require major investment and could take years, he explained.
This means the 65 billion barrels touted by Trump aren’t about to flood the market and drive down pump prices.
“The 65 billion barrel number is a red herring and will have little relevance to any actual deals,” Johnston separately wrote on X, adding that most of the details determining the deal’s real-world impact remain unknown.
Tracy Shuchart
Tracy Shuchart, a senior economist at NinjaTrader Live, pushed back on the idea that Venezuela’s massive reserves will quickly translate into cheaper gas.
“Everyone cheering the Venezuela deal that thinks a flood of cheap oil is about to hit and pull gas prices down. It isn’t,” Shuchart wrote in a post on X on Sunday.
Venezuela is producing about 1.2 million barrels of oil a day, she added, with much of the recent increase coming from Chevron ramping up existing wells rather than new drilling.
“The easy barrels are already back,” Shuchart wrote.
She said the country’s oil reserves are a stock that will take decades to convert into actual production.
“The barrels that could actually move a U.S. pump price are 5 to 15 years out,” she wrote.
Amena Bakr
Amena Bakr, head of Middle East and OPEC+ research at commodities intelligence firm Kpler, also highlighted the scale of investment needed to significantly boost Venezuela’s oil output.
“Years of consistent major investments are needed to build new oil infrastructure for oil production to cross the 1.5 million bpd mark in Venezuela,” Bakr wrote in a post on X on Saturday.
Venezuela’s interim President Delcy Rodríguez said on state television Saturday that the new U.S.-Venezuela energy agreement calls for the development of 17 oilfields with a production target of more than 1.5 million barrels per day.