The advantages of online degree programs, particularly for students whose life circumstances make them unable to attend on-campus programs, have led to a remarkable increase in online enrollments. Nationally, the proportion of college students enrolled in exclusively online degree programs increased from 6.3% in 2012 to 23.4% in 2020.
But what about the outcomes of those enrollments? How do exclusively online students fare in terms of degree completion compared to their peers who take at least some in-person classes?
A new study suggests that being enrolled exclusively in online degree programs is associated with a significantly lower likelihood of finishing a bachelor’s degree. In addition, that disadvantage is greatest for students in private, for-profit online programs.
The results are reported in The Role and Influence of Exclusively Online Degree Programs in Higher Education, a paper by Justin C. Ortagus (University of Florida), Rodney Hughes (West Virginia University) and Hope Allchin (University of Florida), and recently accepted for publication in the American Educational Research Journal.
To conduct the study, the investigators relied on student-level data from the 2012–2017 Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal Study (BPS). This enabled them to track 22,500 students who first enrolled in postsecondary institutions in the 2011–2012 academic year and who were followed up in their first, third, and sixth years after beginning college.
In order to isolate whether any differences in completion might be explained by pre-college student differences rather than students’ enrollment pattern, the authors used a methodology that allowed them to compare otherwise-similar students except for their enrollment status to ensure apples-to-apples comparisons. This strategy was important given the many differences between exclusively online students compared to students who enroll in at least some face-to-face courses.
Also, because we know the types of students who enroll exclusively in online programs differ on several other characteristics, the authors attempted to account for these academic and demographic differences using a statistical technique designed to isolate the impact of enrolling in online degree programs.
Overall, the results showed that students enrolled exclusively online were 8.3 percentage points less likely to complete bachelor’s degrees compared to students who either attended classes in person or who enrolled in a mix of online and in-person classes.
In fact, the overall difference in bachelor’s degree completion rates between students not enrolled exclusively in online programs (43.1%) versus those who were (18.2%) was much larger, but that gap narrows when – as described above – the authors compare only students with the same background characteristics.
Completion rate differences held up for different categories of students. For example:
- Black students who enrolled exclusively online were 8.6 percentage points less likely to complete a bachelor’s degree than Black students who did not.
- White students in exclusively online degree programs were 8.1 percentage points less likely to earn a bachelor’s degree than their peers who were not exclusively enrolled online.
- The difference in bachelor’s degree completion was not statistically significant for Hispanic students, but Hispanics who enrolled exclusively online were 8.7 percentage points less likely to complete any degree (associate degree or bachelor’s degree) compared to Hispanic students who did not enroll exclusively online.
- Low-income students who enrolled exclusively online were 8.9 percentage points less likely to complete a bachelor’s degree relative to their low-income peers not enrolled exclusively online.
- Exclusively online students with military service were 11.4 percentage points less likely to earn their bachelor’s degree compared to peers with military service not enrolled in exclusive online programs.
- Financially independent students exclusively enrolled in online were 5.5 percentage points less likely to complete any degree (associate degree or bachelor’s degree) compared to independent students who did not enroll exclusively online.
The authors also looked at the impact of institution type on completion outcomes for exclusively online students.
Exclusively online students working toward a bachelor’s degree at for-profit institutions were 11.9 percentage points less likely to complete their degree compared to exclusively online students at other types of institutions. That finding is particularly important because more than half of the students attending college exclusively online are doing so at for-profit schools.
For students working toward an associate degree or higher, exclusively online students at for-profit, four-year institutions were 3.5 percentage points less likely to earn an associate degree relative to students in online programs at other types of colleges.
Given these results, what can be done to improve the odds of degree completion for online students? One option is for students in an online program to enroll in at least a few in-person classes if at all possible. Research has confirmed the benefits of opportunities for students to have personal interactions with faculty and peers. For example, the success of hybrid instruction – where online material is complemented by in-person discussions and problem-solving – illustrates this principle.
However, the fact remains that some students will simply not be able to enroll in any in-person courses, leaving them a Hobbesian choice – either enroll in an exclusively online program or skip going to college altogether. For that audience, colleges have a special obligation to provide ample opportunities for faculty engagement and wraparound support services that can help spare students from simply being left to “sink or swim.”
Finally, there’s one other caveat compelled by the study’s results: beware of online programs at for-profit institutions. Across numerous analyses, these programs resulted in relatively poor outcomes for all types of students.
While proponents of for-profit college often claim their completion outcomes are low because their students have pre-college characteristics that make them less likely to graduate in the first place, the authors of the new study disagree.
As lead author Justin Ortagus told me, “Some students may not be able to enroll in face-to-face courses due to work or family obligations, and exclusively online degree programs may be their only option. In those cases, we recommend a public or selective four-year institution and would be very skeptical if a for-profit four-year institution came knocking.”