When world leaders gathered in Belém last month for COP30, they marked a decade since the Paris Agreement and many of them asked a simple question: What has changed in the decarbonization of cars and trucks?
The answer is quite a lot – with the rapid adoption of electric vehicles(EVs), the global auto industry has experienced a historic transformation few imagined possible ten years ago.
But has it been enough to keep the United Nations’ 1.5°C target within reach?
The answer is no, unfortunately. Unless governments move far faster this decade, it is highly likely that the world is heading toward a temperature rise well above 2°C by the end of the century.
In 2015, when the Paris Agreement was signed, EVs barely registered on global sales charts. By 2024, EVs accounted for 21% of all new cars sold worldwide and in China, nearly half of all new vehicles sold were electric. In Europe nearly one out of five cars sold in 2024 was electric and in the United States, EVs approached nearly 9% of new car sales.
This isn’t just a niche market for wealthy nations. Turkey’s EV market in 2025 has grown to 18% in part driven by the domestically developed EV, the TOGG, which they are planning to export to the EU. Thailand’s EV market share hit 14% in 2024, building on its robust auto manufacturing industry to become a Southeast Asian EV hub.
And it’s not just sales. India is scaling EV manufacturing through production-linked incentives. Indonesia is moving up the value chain from mining its extensive nickel reserves to producing EV batteries. Cities from Bogotá to Santiago operate some of the largest electric bus fleets outside China.
The Great American Backslide
But while the world accelerates, the U.S. has stalled. After years of progress, the federal government is systematically dismantling nearly all major support for clean transportation.
History offers hard lessons about the consequences of abandoning successful strategies. After Pericles died, ancient populists in my native Greece dismantled his successful strategy, which favored defense and naval power over land war. They launched the massive, unprovoked Sicilian Expedition. This reversal proved fatal. By abandoning disciplined policy for reckless expansion, Athens lost its entire fleet, its army, and ultimately, its empire.
Today, the U.S. risks similar defeat— not military, but an industrial and economic one. In July, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency proposed repealing the Endangerment Finding, the legal cornerstone of American climate regulation – the transportation industry’s “Magna Carta.” EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin called it the largest deregulatory action in the history of America. If finalized, it will eliminate the EPA’s authority to regulate greenhouse gas emissions from vehicles, power plants, and industrial facilities under the Clean Air Act.
Congress compounded the damage. In July, lawmakers passed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which terminated federal EV tax credits seven years ahead of schedule. Credits that would offer American consumers up to $7,500 for new EVs, $4,000 for used vehicles, and $40,000 for commercial vehicles simply vanished. The tax credit that offered $1,000 for installing home chargers will disappear in June 2026. And the tax incentives for battery manufacturing that fueled the ”Battery Belt” had components phased out or eliminated.
The policy certainty that drove over $420 billion in U.S. clean energy and battery manufacturing investments evaporated overnight.
Automakers Retreat
When regulatory clarity and financial incentives disappear, companies retreat. General Motors, which pledged to build one million EVs by the end of 2025, has scaled back production targets multiple times. The company delayed production of the Chevrolet Silverado EV and GMC Sierra EV until late 2025, then reduced its 2024 EV production forecast to 250,000 units. Ford canceled plans for an all-electric three-row SUV, instead pivoting to hybrids, and indefinitely paused production of the F150 Lightning and is diverting its focus to low cost EVs. Mercedes-Benz abandoned its 2030 all-electric pledge, pushing the target to 2035.
The cost for American workers is already materializing. Through September 2025, 42 major clean energy projects — 32 of them battery and EV facilities — have been canceled, closed, or downsized, killing off more than 20,000 jobs and $24 billion in private investment in 2025. The complete policy reversal is projected to cost over 400,000 U.S. jobs by 2030, driving tens of billions in investment to China, Europe, and Mexico.
This retreat is a strategic error of historic proportions. Rolling back EV incentives sends American jobs to other countries in an already sputtering economy.
New Leadership
The states’ leadership is critical as Washington retreats. California where some 27% of new cars sold in 2024 were electric, had been using its Clean Air Act waiver authority to establish zero emission car and truck standards. In June 2025, Congress and President Trump pushed through an unprecedented move to rescind those waivers, now being challenged in court by California and 10 other states.
Even with that authority in legal limbo, California and the states that historically have followed California’s stricter policies and collectively represent as much as 36% of America’s auto market can keep driving the transition. Available to them are tools that don’t depend on federal waivers – for example, point-of-sale rebates, targeted programs for low- and moderate-income households, utility-funded charging build-out, and aggressive fleet-electrification and procurement requirements.
States working with EV charging companies and utilities can accelerate the transition by expanding smart-charging programs to lower costs and building high-power freight corridors that reduce range anxiety for commercial operators. Cities and ports can partner with vehicle manufacturers to electrify transit fleets, drayage trucks, and school buses — sectors where EVs already offer lower operating costs that translate into immediate budget savings.
When automakers partner with states and cities, everyone benefits. Manufacturers gain stable demand as they are facing uncertainty with current federal policies. States and cities get cleaner air, lower operating costs, and better public health. Workers gain stable long-term jobs in a global industry expected to triple to $2 trillion by 2035.
The United States still possesses world-class engineers, deep manufacturing capacity, and a large domestic market. With federal leadership missing, this collaboration can fill the void as America’s industrial strategy.
The Choice
The global EV market is projected to triple to more than $1.8 trillion in the coming decade. The talent, capital, and technology America needs to compete still exist. But talent migrates to opportunity. Capital flows to stability. And technology develops where supportive policies create dynamic markets. Other nations are building those conditions while the United States tears down what it spent years constructing.
America still has the capacity to lead in clean transportation. But leadership is a choice that requires commitment and consistency. The rest of the world has made its choice.
Ten years after Paris, the global direction of mobility is undeniably electric. Will America build the cars and trucks of that future, or be relegated to buying them from others?