Reading through dozens of 100-page investment outlooks to identify common themes for the year ahead is a daunting task. Fortunately, there are some great tools available to summarize research reports sift through all the different points of view. Below are four major themes common in most of the 2026 investment outlooks. After reviewing 18 reports, four themes emerged again and again in the 2026 outlooks.
The AI Boom Isn’t A Bubble
Several firms referred to what is happening in AI as an infrastructure revolution. Fears of another tech bubble are understandable, but the current AI boom is fundamentally different from the dot-com era. Analysis from Barclays and Morgan Stanley point to the fact that today’s leaders are highly profitable, cash-generative companies, unlike their speculative, often profitless, counterparts from the dot-com bubble.
Hyperscaler capital expenditures are expected to continue, with increased investment in sourcing energy to meet growing demand. The data centers required to train and run advanced AI models are incredibly power-intensive. Goldman forecasts indicate that power demand from data centers is set to grow by more than 175% by 2030 compared to 2023 levels, creating a massive, long-term investment theme in energy and utilities infrastructure.
Fidelity semiconductor analyst Jonathan Tseng addressed the doubters nervous about ROI on the huge infrastructure spend:
“So far, AI models continue to improve and productisation is proceeding rapidly. If that works, then everything else will work. Trying to claim that you conclusively know that AI doesn’t deliver value based on old data and old models is like looking at the Wright Flyer and deciding that mass air travel will never take off.”
It’s Time To Look Beyond the U.S.
Another popular theme from the collective wisdom of the investment community is the improved outlook for non-US equity markets. After years of U.S. market dominance, several firms highlight a structural shift that favors geographic diversification. While the U.S. remains a core engine of global growth, the performance gap between it and the rest of the world is narrowing, creating attractive opportunities for investors.
Europe is expected to have another banner year. Germany, Europe’s largest economy, is embarking on a significant fiscal expansion, with plans to invest heavily in infrastructure and defense. After three years of stagnant earnings, corporate profit growth across Europe will likely accelerate in 2026, according to most firms.
Japan also presents a compelling case, according to the consensus. The new Prime Minister’s pro-growth agenda, combined with ongoing corporate governance reforms aimed at enhancing shareholder value, is creating a positive backdrop for the Japanese stock market. At the same time, Emerging Markets look increasingly attractive, with multiple investment outlooks pointing to improving fundamentals, attractive valuations, and supportive government policies.
JP Morgan sums it up nicely in their outlook:
“The U.S. versus rest of world earnings growth gap has narrowed, as structural changes overseas bear fruit. Strong international equity returns have further room to run due to positive nominal growth, AI, fiscal stimulus and shareholder-friendly policies.”
Expect A Weaker U.S. Dollar
For years, global investors have built their portfolios around a stronger U.S. dollar. Now, a broad consensus among the investment community is pointing to a structural weakening of the dollar in 2026.
The primary drivers for this trend include:
• U.S. Federal Reserve Rate Cuts: Expected interest rate cuts are narrowing the rate differential that has supported the dollar.
• Global Capital Reallocation: A shift in investment flows toward more attractive international opportunities is redirecting capital away from U.S. assets.
• Rising U.S. Fiscal Concerns: Growing government debt levels are weighing on the dollar’s long-term appeal as the world’s primary reserve currency.
If this trend materializes, it should act as a tailwind for international assets, boosting the returns of foreign investments when converted back into U.S. dollars.
Growing Role Of Government
Governments will play a more prominent role in sectors of the economy in 2026 than in prior years, according to several research reports.
The government is expected to influence markets in three areas:
1. Industrial Policy: Governments, particularly in the U.S., are now actively using tariffs, subsidies, and direct investment to support strategic industries deemed critical for national security. Sectors such as semiconductors, clean energy, and rare earth elements are receiving direct policy support to ensure supply chain resilience.
2. Massive Deficits: Government debt in major economies is projected to continue rising. This is driven by long-term defense spending commitments, aging demographics, and a greater willingness to use fiscal stimulus to manage economic cycles.
3. Financial Repression: This refers to policies designed to keep interest rates artificially low to help governments manage high debt loads. By making government bonds more attractive to banks and pension funds, these policies effectively channel private savings to fund public deficits.
This new era of big (and active) government creates policy-driven opportunities in sectors such as defense, infrastructure, and energy technology, aligned with national strategic priorities.
Many of the themes outlined above are not new narratives for the market. They have been driving stock prices for most of 2025, and it’s only natural for most analysts to expect them to continue. Still, understanding the consensus view can help spot news or developments that are counter-trend to it. After all, it’s the surprises that create the most volatility and price movement in markets.