Adobe Digital Insights has predicted online holiday sales will exceed $250 billion in 2025, fueled by 1 trillion visits to U.S. retail websites. That would translate to a sales increase of 5.3% from last year’s total holiday spend.
Can your investment portfolio benefit from the increase? Possibly. While stock prices tend to adjust long before Black Friday weekend, the movements are based on investor expectations. The companies that outperform expectations stand to win, while those that fall short could see price declines.
Identifying Stocks Poised To Outperform
Fei Chen, CEO and founder of fintech startup Intellectia.AI, predicts this year’s Black Friday winners will include infrastructure as well as retailers. “The real opportunity lies in identifying companies with structural advantages beyond a single shopping weekend,” Chen said, “particularly those integrating AI-powered commerce and omni-channel strategies that will define retail for years to come.”
Retailers directly capture the revenue from Black Friday shopping activity. Known retail brands that sell online and in-store—like Walmart and Target—are well-positioned to capitalize on the holiday shopping surge. However, low retail margins mean a lesser impact on the bottom line.
Higher-margin businesses can drive bigger profit changes from the Black Friday surge. As an example, the operating margin in Amazon’s North America segment, which is primarily retail sales, was 8% in last year’s fourth quarter. The operating margin in Amazon’s AWS business, which provides cloud computing and e-commerce infrastructure, was 36.9%. Much smaller revenue gains in AWS can drive the same profits as larger gains in North American retail sales.
Cloud providers, payment processors and lenders are high-margin businesses that should benefit from the Black Friday sales surge.
5 Stocks Ready To Deliver On Black Friday Sales
Chen identified five stocks that are ready to outperform over the Black Friday weekend. They are:
- Amazon (AMZN)
- Shopify (SHOP)
- Walmart (WMT)
- Paypal (PYPL)
- Target (TGT)
A closer look at each company follows, with metrics sourced from company reports and stockanalysis.com.
1. Amazon
- Market cap: $2.4 trillion
- Stock price: $220.69
- Trailing 12-month, or TTM, EPS: $7.08
- 2025 EPS forecast: $7.14
Amazon generates revenue from e-commerce sales, cloud computing, advertising and subscription payments. The diversified business model allows Amazon to benefit in multiple ways from holiday shopping.
“Amazon captures value whether consumers shop on its platform or on the thousands of e-commerce sites powered by AWS infrastructure,” said Chen. “It’s the only company positioned to win regardless of where holiday dollars are spent,” he explained.
2. Shopify
- Market cap: $192.5 billion
- Stock price: $147.89
- TTM EPS: $1.36
- 2025 EPS forecast: $1.48
Shopify provides subscription-based website hosting to millions of e-commerce retailers. The company also earns payment processing fees from e-commerce transactions.
Chen highlighted Shopify’s strong third-quarter results, with 67% growth in payment volume. Shopify also recently launched an integration that allows its merchants to sell their products within ChatGPT conversations.
3. Walmart
- Market cap: $839.7 billion
- Stock price: $105.32
- TTM EPS: $2.86
- Fiscal year 2026 (ending on Jan. 31, 2026) EPS forecast: $2.64
Walmart operates the Walmart and Sam’s Club retail chains and their respective e-commerce websites. The retailer also sells advertising around the world. Walmart’s global advertising business grew 53% in the third quarter. Subscription revenues for Walmart+, a competitor to Amazon Prime, round out the diversified model.
Walmart, like Amazon, can benefit from Black Friday sales across multiple business, from lower-margin retail sales to higher-margin advertising. The company is also executing well, earning double-digit gains in global e-commerce sales, membership income and advertising in the third quarter.
4. Paypal
- Market cap: $56.7 billion
- Stock price: $60.58
- TTM EPS: $4.98
- 2025 EPS forecast: $5.45
PayPal processes online payments, offers short-term “buy now pay later” installment loans, issues debit and credit cards and provides digital wallets that store cash and cryptocurrency.
PayPal captures transaction fees across the internet, because it integrates with major e-commerce platforms, including Shopify, WooCommerce, BigCommerce, and Wix. According to Digitalcommerce360, more than 82% of the largest retailers accept PayPal payments. To the extent more holiday shoppers use PayPal, the company will benefit.
5. Target
- Market cap: $39.7 billion
- Stock price: $87.57
- TTM EPS: $8.25
- 2025 EPS forecast: $8.86
Target operates target.com and a chain of retail stores in the U.S. The product selection includes men’s and women’s fashion, beauty, personal care, home décor, party supplies, furniture, groceries and more.
Chen described Target as “the contrarian pick.” The company just announced a $1 billion spending effort to spark growth through store openings, remodels, improved customer experiences and better technology. Chen believes Target will benefit now from its brand loyalty and “same-day delivery capabilities.” And, the planned investments could trigger “significant upside that the market isn’t pricing in,” he explained.
Bottom Line
Expectations for Black Friday profits are already baked into stock prices. To add value to your portfolio at this stage, opt for companies that can outperform expectations—not only for Black Friday weekend, but for the rest of the fourth quarter.