The Chiefs and Bills engage in regular-season battle for the fifth time since the start of the 2021 season on Sunday afternoon at Highmark Stadium, with Buffalo having won four straight non-postseason clashes versus Kansas City.
Here are three player prop bets to consider placing before Sunday afternoon’s marquee matchup kicks off:
Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills
- Over 229.5 passing yards (-112 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
The Bills typically don’t overwork Allen unless they’re being pushed by the opposing offense, as evidenced by the fact the perennial Pro Bowler is averaging a scant 19.4 pass attempts per contest. However, Allen has 31 and 26 pass attempts in Buffalo’s two losses, and Sunday’s matchup lines up as one that should be extremely competitive.
Thanks in part to Patrick Mahomes has been more active as a passer than in recent seasons and enjoying plenty of success when dropping back, the Chiefs are facing a 60% opponent pass play rate over the last three games. Allen has attempted fewer than 34 passes just twice in his last 10 meetings with Kansas City overall (including playoff games) while throwing for at least 233 yards in six of the last seven contests in this series.
The Chiefs have allowed 221.7 passing yards per game on the road – a stark departure from the 151.4 they’ve yielded per home contest – and they’re surrendering 10.9 yards per completion outside Arrowhead Stadium as well (compared to 8.1 at home). Given the expected game environment, this is a figure Allen should have more than enough opportunity to exceed.
Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs
- Under 274.5 passing yards (-113 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
As just mentioned, through the first half of this season, Mahomes has somewhat reverted back to the pass-centric approach he enjoyed so much success with earlier in his career, averaging 262.4 passing yards per contest after putting up 245.5 per contest a season ago.
Mahomes is reaping the benefits of a much healthier pass-catching corps than he had last season, as Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy and Marquise Brown are all finally available to him simultaneously. Nevertheless, Sunday’s matchup lines up as one where the Chiefs could opt for a more balanced approach as long as conditions allow, even with Isiah Pacheco (knee) sitting out and the backfield therefore expected to be in the hands of the Kareem Hunt-Brashard Smith-Elijah Mitchell trio.
The Bills have been gashed against the run and very stingy versus the pass, leading to Buffalo facing the eight-lowest pass play rate (52.5%) even when accounting for the fact they’ve recorded four double-digit wins where opponents have eventually been forced to turn to the air heavily. That’s largely the byproduct of the Bills surrendering 150.3 rushing yards per game, along with 5.3 yards per carry to running backs.
In turn, Buffalo has surrendered an AFC-low 161.9 passing yards per game, along with the sixth-lowest yards per completion (9.3). Mahomes has fallen short of this prop in four consecutive games in the series, and given the factors cited, I expect a fifth straight occurrence Sunday.
James Cook, RB, Buffalo Bills
- Over 88.5 rushing + receiving yards (-115 on BetMGM Sportsbook)
Cook has been amply validating the faith the Bills showed in him this offseason via a lucrative contract extension, recording 753 rushing yards and 89 receiving yards through his first seven games. The star running back has essentially been on a tear since a relatively quiet Week 1 against the Ravens, averaging 118.2 rushing yards on 18.8 rush attempts in the subsequent six contests.
The matchup against the Chiefs has been solid for running backs on the road, as KC is surrendering 109.7 rushing yards per game outside Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs also yield 4.5 yards per carry overall to RBs and rank in the second half of the league in both second-level and open-field yards surrendered per carry.
Kansas City has yielded a 35-280-1 receiving line and 80% catch rate to running backs, setting Cook up for some possibly solid production through the air. His involvement in the pass game has been relatively modest this season – he has just 12 receptons on 14 targets – but the fourth-year back is dangerous in space, and the Bills will undoubtedly be looking to get the ball into the hands of one of their top playmakers in a game where points will be paramount.