In today’s column, I examine the rapidly evolving and altogether acrimonious debate about whether and how AI should or should not be used as a tool for weaponization amidst the waging of wars.
You probably have heard or read about the efforts to embed modern-era AI into all manner of weaponry. The temptation to do so is immense. A frequent argument is that using the latest AI in this way is pretty much required due to an arms race underway. AI is the newest wonder-weapon of choice. Those that don’t incorporate AI into their military wares will be at a severe competitive disadvantage and wide open to being crushed by those that do extensively adopt AI militarily.
A recently published research article by the esteemed professor and researcher Dr. Asaf Lubin provides crucial insights into the AI and warfare topic, especially revealing intriguing considerations for how we might seek to reimagine international law when it comes to preparations for warfare. We all need to mindfully think outside the box on these life-or-death matters.
Let’s talk about it.
This analysis of AI breakthroughs is part of my ongoing Forbes column coverage on the latest in AI, including identifying and explaining various impactful AI complexities (see the link here).
Systems Development Life Cycle
Before I dive into the mainstay topic at hand, I’d like to provide a seemingly off-tangent foundational setting that will be useful when addressing the sobering warfare considerations. You will see momentarily the logic for my starting the discussion in this fashion.
Please hang in there.
Nearly anyone who has ever been involved with developing a new system of one kind or another has likely encountered the so-called systems development life cycle (commonly abbreviated as SDLC). You start the process of devising a new system by first conceiving of what the system is anticipated to ultimately accomplish. Once you have a semblance of the aims, you can venture into designing the system. The design is then used to build the system. The built system is tested and made ready for use. After putting the system into action, there is a need to perform upkeep and ongoing maintenance.
Those are the classical steps or stages when a system is crafted and rolled out. It is the proverbial life cycle of what ought to occur. One stage leads to the next. If you omit a step or stage, the odds are you’ll have a mess on your hands. For example, without a design, you are going to be building the system on a whim and via seat-of-the-pants hunches. Not a good way to try and ensure the system comes out gloriously.
By and large, people involved in high-tech are intimately familiar with a systems development life cycle approach to things. Whether you are creating an AI-based app or just some plain vanilla application, the value of abiding by a thoughtful SDLC is well-known.
Sadly, not everyone keeps their eye on the ball, and at times, the SDLC is poorly followed. You can often sense that something went awry during an SDLC in your capacity as a prospective user of the said system. Things don’t seem to gel well. Did they skip a step, or maybe they dropped the ball during a key step? That’s a sometimes-apparent guess by experiencing how the system inevitably came out.
Wars Have A Kind Of Cycle
Let’s shift gears.
If you were to mindfully contemplate the nature of wars, it would become apparent that the waging of war is reflective of a type of cycle.
How so?
Well, before a war takes place, there are often preparations for war. That’s a customary first step. The next step comes when a decision is made to wage war. After deciding to proceed with war, the war action commences. Various necessary upkeep tasks take place during the war. The war will presumably eventually conclude, but the cycle isn’t yet done. There are usually post-war activities that arise.
In that sense, war is akin to a system and can be depicted as a series of steps or stages.
Similar to how any complex system can get gummed up, there might be deep versus shallow attention devoted to each respective step or stage associated with warfare. Imagine a country that fails to prepare for war. They decide, nonetheless, to leap into war. The odds are that by having skipped the preparatory stage, they are going to find themselves at a huge disadvantage. Wars have been readily lost because of a lack of foresight and proper preparation.
Theories About War
Humankind has a long-standing preoccupation with the nature of war. Rightfully so, since war has severe consequences, plus humanity seems to be drawn to waging wars. If the topic of warfare interests you, there are a slew of perspectives about war, including philosophical ones, religious ones, tactical waging ones, etc. You can immerse yourself in the theories and practices of war on a nearly endless basis.
A slice of war that has its own depth entails the preparation portion of the warring cycle.
Some would argue that if you want peace, you must prepare for war. That’s a popular slogan. The idea is that by strengthening yourself for the waging of war, others who are eyeing you will hopefully decide they don’t want to go to war against you. Peace through strength.
Whoa, comes an oft-noted retort, if you want war, prepare for war. The contention is that the very act of preparing for war is going to stir the propensity to go to war. You will feel prepared to engage in war. Why not engage in war as a result of being ready for it? You might as well get on with what you’ve prepared to do. Others might also see your preparations as an ominous signal, opting to engage in war with you before your preparations are fully formed. The mere act of preparing for war is deemed a trigger for war to take place.
Another frequent saying is that if you want peace, agree to keep peace. This kind of refrain is intended to refocus from warring to instead concentrate on peace. Don’t speak about war. Speak instead about peace. Change the mindset to be dominated by peace rather than fighting wars.
Justifications Involving War
Society has historically managed to come up with theories regarding the justifications associated with war. This is usually denoted via the catchphrase of “Just war theory,” meaning that wars should only be undertaken in suitably justifiable situations and conditions.
We might contend that war is at times justifiable, while in other instances it is unjust. Getting into war can be done intentionally, but there is also the argument that war waging can occur unintentionally. All in all, a contemporary viewpoint is that wars are supposed to only be waged if properly justified and performed only by intention and not on some unintentional or maybe accidental basis.
The aspect of justification can be applied to the stages or steps of the warring cycle. This is typically phrased in Latin sayings, for example:
- Jus ante bellum (justifiable preparations for war)
- Jus ad bellum (justifiable basis for going to war)
- Jus in bellum (justifiable conduct during war)
- Jus post bellum (justifiable actions post-war)
The Written Rules And Laws Of War
You might be wondering where the rules associated with these kinds of justifications are written down for all to see.
That’s the province of international laws associated with war. Perhaps the most notable example would be the codification of war-related aspects in the United Nations Charter.
Consider these two notable rules:
- “All Members shall refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any State, or in any other manner inconsistent with the purposes of the United Nations” (source: UN Charter, Article 2).
- “Nothing in the present Charter shall impair the inherent right of individual or collective self-defense if an armed attack occurs against a Member of the United Nations” (source: UN Charter, Article 51).
Lawyers, law professors, and law researchers who are specialists in the legal aspects of war are constantly studying, analyzing, and proffering new insights about the alignment of international laws and what might be most applicable for societal needs.
AI As Disruptor For Thinking About War
Now that I’ve walked you through some key fundamentals associated with war, we are ready to add the advent of advanced AI into the calculations at hand.
It is quite apparent that advanced AI is a significant disruptor associated with war and how we think about war. Whereas weaponry has been principally controlled by human hands, AI and its extension into the likes of functioning autonomously have changed the equation of war. For more about the dynamics associated with advanced AI and how it is going to shake up international relations and geopolitical powers, see my analyses at the link here and the link here, just to name a few.
I’d ask you to reflect judiciously on how AI comes to the fore when preparing for war. We shall unpack the role of AI in war preparations. Of course, AI has impacts across the full cycle of war. I bring up the preparations stage because it is often neglected or inadequately examined. The shiny object that seems to catch our eyes is the use of AI amid war.
But it turns out that the preparation stage of war has enormous considerations too.
A Detailed Reveal Of Significance
In an eye-opening research article entitled “Technology and the Law of Jus Ante Bellum” by Asaf Lubin, Chicago Journal of International Law, Summer 2025, these vital remarks offer an important catalyst for new thinking on these weighty matters (excerpts):
- “This Article highlights glaring inadequacies in how the U.N. Charter, international humanitarian law, and international criminal law currently regulate peacetime military preparations, particularly those involving disruptive technologies.”
- “During their pre-war development, these disruptive technologies embed countless design choices, hardcoding into their software and user interfaces policy rationales, legal interpretations, and value judgments.”
- “Once deployed in battle, these choices have the potential to precondition warfighters and set in motion violations of international humanitarian law.”
- “By reimagining international law’s temporalities, Jus Ante Bellum offers a proactive framework for addressing the risks posed by the development of disruptive military technologies.”
- “Without this recalibration, international law will continue to cede regulatory authority to the silent decisions made in the server farms of defense contractors and the fortified war rooms of central command, where algorithms and algorithms and military strategies converge to dictate the contours of conflict long before it even begins.”
The author of the research article is Dr. Asaf Lubin, Associate Professor of Law at Indiana University Maurer School of Law and a Faculty Affiliate of the Hamilton Lugar School of Global and International Studies. He is an Affiliated Fellow at Yale Law School’s Information Society Project, a Faculty Associate at the Berkman Klein Center for Internet and Society at Harvard University, and a Research Associate at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem Federmann Cyber Security Research Center.
I was fortunate to have met him at a recent Harvard AI Workshop that we were participating in. After hearing his remarks, I opted to read some of his research. It’s good stuff, abundantly worth reading.
AI In The Preparations For War
The efforts taking place right now to embed AI into war preparations are generally occurring without much fanfare. It isn’t especially a banner headline consideration. Only once war is waged or AI-based weapons are actively employed do we tend to become avidly cognizant of the AI components involved.
Furthermore, as pointed out in the research article, there are a myriad of either implicit or uncontested explicit assumptions regarding the AI that is being embedded during the preparation stage. Those are essentially hidden assumptions. Few will realize that those assumptions are precooked and preloaded. The impacts of those in-the-shadow settings will likely only be realized once the AI-powered weaponry is utilized. Even then, it might still be challenging to trace the actions that resulted and how the original AI keystones were established.
The various implementations of advanced AI during the preparation stage are exemplified by this excerpt from the article:
- “Military AI will be embedded in new weapons and weapon technologies; it will redefine supply chain management and logistical maneuvering within the military; it will allow for faster and more innovative forms of prepositioning of forces and their capabilities; it will support wartime intelligence collection and analysis; and finally, military AI will also make most operational playbooks obsolete while redefining the meaning of professional decision-making and agency in the age of big data warfare.”
Note that advanced AI gets integrated far more than into weapons alone. For example, AI is embedded in the logistics of war preparations. AI is also being used to devise war-related engagement plans and playbooks. Etc.
The research lays out four categories or buckets of the preparations stage, which I briefly depict this way:
- Armaments: Performing arms development, stockpiling arms, and trading of arms during the preparation for war.
- Prepositioning: Placement of various armed forces and associated capabilities as part of war preparations.
- Intelligence: Establishing foreknowledge and war-waging intelligence in anticipation of conducting war.
- Professionalism: Putting together engagement rules, operational playbooks, and training for war.
AI readily dovetails into all four of those categories or buckets. Indeed, it would likely be a misstep to omit AI from any of the categories. The odds are that this would possibly give rise to a highly vulnerable weak link in the chain, potentially undercutting the other preparations.
Reimagining War In An AI Era
A heavy thought proffered by this research that ought to spark newly engaged dialogue in the arena of international humanitarian law (IHL) and across society is this piercing remark (excerpt): “It is in this sense that IHL violations and even war crimes will be quietly encoded in peacetime — in the hum of servers, the programming of automated systems, and the preconditioning of warfighters — only to unravel violently once the war commences.”
In my viewpoint, this brings to the surface a plethora of mind-bending questions:
- Can we trust that the necessary mindset and due diligence are taking place when it comes to each country opting to choose how they want to embed advanced AI into their war preparations?
- Will some countries react to other countries based on the classic “if you want war, prepare for war,” and perhaps take early action as a preemptive move to avoid advanced AI from getting fully enmeshed in the elements of war preparation?
- Are the pre-cooked assumptions codified in AI and that are embedded into preparations for war going to be potentially “forgotten” as to their substance (by neglect or by happenstance), such that later, when the AI is activated for use, no longer will any human know what the AI was programmed or guided to accomplish?
- Is it feasible to update and upgrade international laws so that a recognition of how advanced AI is altering the preparation for war is given adequate attention and airtime, rather than being overlooked or construed as unimportant?
There are many challenging issues that we need to openly face.
I also envision that we ought to craft a comprehensive perspective on AI in warfare that covers downstream and upstream activities and international laws, entailing all stages of the war-related cycle. Thus, in addition to war preparations, the subsequent stages equally deserve scrutiny and analysis. This would go so far as considering the post-war complications, such as the decommissioning of AI that was immersed in the rest of the stages. It is a well-needed A-to-Z compendium that covers all the bases.
Meeting Daunting Challenges
As Albert Einstein famously said: “May the conscience and the common sense of the peoples be awakened, so that we may reach a new stage in the life of nations, where people will look back on war as an incomprehensible aberration of their forefathers.” I hope that his sentiment will someday come true.
Meanwhile, reality dictates that we keep our eyes open and our noses to the grind, particularly when considering the role of advanced AI and the pervasive preparations for war.