Steep cuts to global education funding could push 6 million more children out of school in the coming year. In humanitarian contexts, the threats could be devastating. “Every dollar cut from education is not just a budgetary decision, it’s a child’s future hanging in the balance,” said UNICEF Executive Director Catherine Russell.
New analysis from UNICEF shows that international aid to education is projected to fall by $3.2 billion by 2026 — a 24 percent drop. This sharp decline would push the number of out-of-school children worldwide from the current 272 million to 278 million by the end of next year.
That’s the equivalent of emptying out every primary school in Germany and Italy combined.
Education aid cuts put the most vulnerable children’s futures at risk
Of the 6 million children who could lose their access to education, 30 percent are growing up in fragile humanitarian settings, facing threats like armed conflict, natural disasters, displacement and famine. In Bangladesh, for example, 350,000 Rohingya refugee children whose families were forcibly displaced from Myanmar are now at risk of losing access to basic education permanently.
“Every dollar cut from education is not just a budgetary decision, it’s a child’s future hanging in the balance,” said UNICEF Executive Director Catherine Russell. “Education, especially in emergency settings, often serves as a lifeline, connecting children to essential services like health, protection and nutrition. It also provides the strongest opportunity for a child to escape poverty and build a better life.”
If the announced cuts to official development assistance (ODA) become a reality, 28 countries stand to lose at least a quarter of the education aid they rely on. The heaviest impact is expected to be in regions that are already vulnerable. West and Central Africa could see 1.9 million children and young people lose access to school, while 1.4 million more could be pushed out across the Middle East and North Africa.
Even children who stay in school will be affected. With reduced support for system strengthening such as curriculum development, learning assessment and teacher development, at least 290 million students could experience a decline in the quality of their education almost overnight.
Which donors are responsible for the majority of the cuts?
UNICEF’s analysis looks at funding cuts to education from up to 60 donors in total. Just three donor governments — the United States, Germany and France — account for nearly 80 percent of the cuts. These cuts are especially consequential because they were among the largest providers of country-programmable education ODA, the part that directly reaches classrooms and children.
Some countries are projecting increases in education aid: South Korea, Italy, Spain, Denmark and Luxembourg. But while some have pledged to increase their aid, the scale of those increases is far smaller than the reductions.
Who will be hit hardest?
Young learners will be the hardest hit, with primary education facing cuts of $856 million, a 34 percent decrease. This sharp drop yields a potential $164 billion lost in lifetime earnings for those children.
The cuts threaten to deepen the already dire learning crisis plaguing low- and middle-income countries, where in some cases only 1 in 10 10-year-olds can read and understand a simple text.
Essential services under threat
Schools are safe havens providing education, safe water, toilets, meals, health care and referrals to child protection services for children facing abuse, exploitation or other protection risks. But lifelines like school feeding programs now face 57 percent cuts ($190 million), robbing many students of their only nutritious meal and harming learning.
Girls’ progress at risk
Education aid focused on girls — girls’ tuition subsidies, safe and private toilets, girls’ skills programs — faces a 28 percent cut ($123 million), risking the reversal of hard-won progress in girls’ education. A decade ago, a girl in one of the world’s least developed countries had about an 80 percent chance of completing high school compared to a boy; today, that gap has nearly closed, but it’s at risk of widening again.
Crisis zones abandoned
In emergencies, schools are more than places of learning. They are safe spaces that provide hope, stability, protection and access to essential services, which are vital to children’s recovery and well-being in times of distress.
With funding cuts for education in emergencies projected at $745 million (24 percent), countries in humanitarian crises will face heavy financial losses that their systems cannot absorb. Places like Central African Republic, Haiti, Somalia and the State of Palestine could lose education ODA equivalent to over 10 percent of their public education budget.
A brain drain and widening of the deficit in data, research and monitoring
An estimated $500 million (20 percent) cut to system-level education investments will widen the deficit in data, research and monitoring, impacting countries’ ability to understand where gaps are and where action is needed to improve educational outcomes.
At the same time, many skilled teachers are being lost due to funding declines. Even if funds are restored later, this brain drain cannot be quickly reversed. Together, these factors weaken the foundation and long-term effectiveness of education systems.
UNICEF won’t stop working to reach every child with quality education
Every child has the right to learn — education is a basic human right. In 147 countries around the world, UNICEF works to provide quality learning opportunities that prepare children and adolescents with the knowledge and skills they need to thrive.
UNICEF is calling on donors to direct at least half of all education aid to least developed countries, safeguard humanitarian funding, and prioritize support for education in the early years and primary schooling. It also urges reforms to make financing more efficient and sustainable.
UNICEF makes targeted efforts to provide equitable access to quality education and learning to all children, including those who are excluded on the basis of gender, disability, poverty, ethnicity and language. Outcomes are at the center of UNICEF’s work to close the gap between what students are learning and what they need to thrive in their communities and future jobs. UNICEF is the largest provider of educational support throughout humanitarian response, working with the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR), the World Food Program and other partners. “Education, especially in emergency settings, often serves as a lifeline,” Russell said. “Investing in children’s education is one of the best investments in the future — for everyone.”
Read UNICEF’s full analysis: Education aid cuts: a broken promise to children
Learn more about UNICEF’s work to ensure every child has access to quality learning opportunities