The defending NBA champion Boston Celtics will have some work to do to get out of the Eastern Conference playoffs after upstart Cleveland had one of best seasons in franchise history.
Still. Boston opens as the favorite.
The Cavaliers won 64 games, three more than the Celtics, with a dedication to the extra pass and the open man. First-year coach Kenny Atkinson is a top candidate for NBA Coach of the Year.
Cleveland leads the league in offensive efficiency behind guards Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland, but it havs struggled recently, going 8-8 in their last 16 games.
Boston’s Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are bigger, stronger wings, and they know how to win.
The Celtics and Cavaliers are favored to meet in the Eastern Conference finals, and anything else would be an upset.
New York, the No. 3 seed in the East, is 0-8 against Cleveland and Boston this season. Milwaukee ended the regular season on an eight-game winning streak, and it does have championship pedigree after winning it all in 2021.
The first two of the East playoff series begin Saturday, when the Knicks host the Detroit Pistons and the Indiana Pacers host the Milwaukee Bucks.
FIRST ROUND PAIRINGS
No. 1 CLEVELAND vs No. 10 MIAMI
Season series: Cleveland, 2-1
Game 1: Sunday, at Cleveland, 7 pm ET
Cleveland was a team in the best sense of the word this season. No starter averaged more than Mitchell’s 31.4 minutes per game and eight others averaged at least 19.7, including trading deadline acquisition De’Andre Hunter, obtained from Atlanta specifically to help defend the perimeter against the distance shooters in Boston.
The Cavaliers led the NBA in 3-point shooting percentage until the first week in March, but since have dropped into the lower half of the league. Forward Evan Mobley was a member of the All-Defensive team in 2023 and has increased his offensive production this season. Center Jarrett Allen defends the paint and rebounds.
Miami will not be a pushover. The No. 10 seed Heat won play-in road games in Chicago and Atlanta to advance with guard Tyler Herro doing the heavy lifting, and they are no stranger to postseason success, with or without Jimmy Butler.
Herro and Stephen Curry are the only players with multiple 30-point games in one play-in tournament. Without Butler, the Heat could use a return to playoff form by Bam Adebayo.
Prediction: Cleveland in five.
No. 2 BOSTON vs No. 7 ORLANDO
Season series: Orlando, 2-1
Game 1: Sunday, at Boston, 3:30 pm ET
Boston has won 50 games for four straight seasons with a simple approach: shoot the three. The Celtics again led the league in 3-pointers attempted and made, hitting 17.8 per game while hoisting up 48. Tatum had another solid season at 26.8 points per game.
Brown has been missed 12 games since mid-February and sat out the final three regular-season games with a bone bruise in his right knee that has required pain-killing injections. Injuries to Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday have kept the Celtics from putting out their “A” lineup regularly, but when they are whole they are very good. Al Horford just wins.
Orlando has been hurt even more by injuries, losing Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner and Jalen Suggs for at least a month apiece (Suggs will not play again this season) just as they were showing their belonged among the East contenders.
The Magic won two of the three games in the regular-season series and held the Celtics to 76 points on April 9, when Boston rested its starters. Orlando is in the bottom of the league in shooting and rebounding.
Prediction: Boston in four.
No. 3 NEW YORK vs No. 6 DETROIT
Season series: Detroit, 3-1
Game 1: Saturday, at New York, 6 pm ET
New York coach Tom Thibodeau reworked his roster in the offseason to add Karl-Anthony Towns as a scoring alternative to Jalen Brunson, and that move helped the Knicks to 51 wins, their best season in a decade.
Thibodeau believes in starters’ minutes — Mikal Bridges and Josh Hart are 1-2 in the league in minutes played. At the same time, Brunson may be fresher after missing almost a month with an ankle injury. Depth and defending the paint are issues.
While the Knicks took an incremental step forward this season, the Pistons made giant strides. Their 44 wins marked a 30-game improvement from 2023-24 under new coach J.B. Bickerstaff. Guard Cade Cunningham, the first overall pick in the 2021 draft, took another step forward while averaging 26.1 points per game.
Guard Malik Beasley is a strong candidate for sixth man of the year, along with Boston’s Payton Pritchard. Cunningham torched the Knicks in the regular season, averaging 30.8 points per.
Prediction: Knicks in seven.
No. 4 INDIANA vs No. 5 MILWAUKEE
Season series: Milwaukee, 3-1
Game 1: Saturday, at Indiana, 1 pm ET
The Bucks enter on an eight-game winning streak, and both teams have won eight of 10. This is a rematch from the 2024 first-round series won by the Pacers, but that comes with a caveat: Bucks’ perennial MVP candidate Giannis Antetokounmpo missed the series with a strained calf.
Antetokounmpo had what has become a standard season when even close to full health — 30.4 points, 11.9 rebounds, 6.5 assists and 1.2 blocks per game.
Damian Lillard is the Bucks’ injury worry this time. Lillard has has missed the last 14 games because of a deep vein thrombosis (blood clot) in his right calf and is not expected to play in Game 1 of the series. He averaged 24.9 points and 7.1 assists in 58 games.
Pacers leading scorer Pascal Siakam (20.2 points, 6.9 rebounds) missed three of the final five games to manage his ailing left elbow but seems good to go. Both teams rank in the top 10 in offensive efficiency.
While some teams eschew the true point guard, the Pacers have three — All-Star Tyrese Haliburton, Andrew Nembhard and T.J. McConnell. The up-tempo Pacers are third in the league in assists and ninth in steals. They are 33-14 since Jan. 1.
Prediction: Pacers in seven.