A new report from the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center shows that a substantial shift in the college credentials being earned by the nation’s undergraduates is underway.
Students appear to be concentrating increasingly on sub-baccaulureate curricula that are less expensive and have direct ties to immediate career opportunities. That may be good news in the short run for colleges as they struggle to maintain their enrollment and completion numbers, but whether it’s a positive development in terms of the nation’s long-term workforce needs and economic future is another matter.
The number of students completing an undergraduate certificate (typically, a credential that’s focused on specific content and can be completed in a year or less of study) hit an all-time high last year. However, the number of undergraduate degrees — both bachelor’s degrees and associate’s degrees — declined, continuing the downward trend for the third consecutive year.
The data are contained in the latest Undergraduate Degree Earners report from NSCRC, covering outcomes for academic year 2023-24.
The total number of undergraduate credentials awarded in 2023-24 exceeded 3.2 million, with 59% (1.9 million) of those being BA degrees, 25% were AA degrees (821,400) and 16% were undergraduate certificates (525,200).
While that total represented a .6% increase over the prior year, equal to about 20,500 more earned credentials, the increase was accounted for entirely by the surge in certificates, which were up 11.2% over the prior year, an increase NSCRC officials described as “stunning.” By contrast, the number of bachelor’s degrees dropped by 1.3%, and associates degrees declined by .9%.
In fact, fewer students earned an associate degree in 2023-24 than in any of the last 10 years, while the number of bachelor’s degree earners dropped to their lowest level since 2015-16.
“This report provides yet more evidence that today’s students want shorter-term, lower-cost credentials that lead to faster employment opportunities,” said Doug Shapiro, Executive Director of the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center in a news release. “It is certificate programs, not associates or bachelor’s degrees, that are drawing students into colleges today.”
The report differentiated between students who earned their first-ever undergraduate credential and those who stacked new awards on top of a previous degree or certificate they had been awarded.
Both first-time certificate earners (+12.6%, +41,500) and those with a prior award returning to earn a certificate (+8.0%, +11,500) saw big increases. In 2023-24, the proportion of first-time undergraduate degree completers who earned a certificate was about 1 in 7 (15.4%), compared to 1 in 9 (11.3%), a decade earlier in 2014-15.
Although the number of completers with a prior certificate who also earned either a bachelor’s or associate’s degree increased this year (+6.3% and +4.1%, respectively), the number of bachelor’s degree completers who had earned a previous associate’s degree declined for the third year in a row, after six years of steady growth.
Demographic Differences
On average, certificate earners are getting younger. In 2023-24, certificate completers aged 24 and younger outnumbered those 25 and older, the first year that such a pattern has emerged. Certificate completers 18-20 years old grew by nearly 20,000 (17.8%) and those under 18 (likely dual enrolled high school students) grew by over 7,000 (27.2%) in 2023-24.
Considering all kinds of undergraduates credentials, every demographic group saw increases, except for white students, who experienced a year-over-year 1.7% decline in credentials earned.
All demographic groups saw an increase in the number of certificates earned.
Regional and State Differences
While the Northeast and Midwest regions of the country saw declines of 2.9% and .4% respectively, in the number of all earned credentials, the South saw a gain of 1.4%, while the West remained flat.
Among relatively large states, California, New York, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Washington and Minnesota all saw total awarded credentials decrease by 3.5% or more.
Certificates increased in all regions, except the Northeast, which saw a decrease of 9.6%.
About The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center
The NSCRC is the research arm of the National Student Clearinghouse. It collaborates with higher education institutions, states, school districts, high schools, and educational organizations to gather accurate longitudinal data that can be used to guide educational policy decisions. NSCRC analyzes data from 3,600 postsecondary institutions, which represented 97% of the nation’s postsecondary enrollment in Title IV degree-granting institutions in the U.S., as of 2020.
The new Undergraduate Degree Earners report was created with the support of the Lumina Foundation.