Late in the third round of the Masters, Max Homa stood on the 16th tee with a 9-iron in his hands. He had gone 29 holes since last making a birdie yet was only two shots off the lead.
Homa struck a crisp iron that sailed to within 15 feet of the pin, tucked in the back right corner of the heavily contoured green. Then he watched, without great surprise, as gravity pulled the pull down to the bottom of the green, 40 feet from the hole.
Saturday was that kind of day for Homa and just about everybody else near the leaderboard of the Masters. As a result, golf’s most aesthetically pleasing event heads to its final round with the possibility of not just a dramatic finish but possibly its first three-man playoff in 15 years.
That’s how narrow the line is separating the contenders. Why not some bonus golf to decide a winner?
Scottie Scheffler is leading, with 11 others within six shots. High winds on Friday and firm, roller-coaster fast greens on Saturday have kept scoring under control after a first round when Bryson DeChambeau shot 65. Scheffler, the event’s heavy favorite, turned in a 66 on Thursday that suggested he might just cruise to his second green jacket in three years.
Yet first-year pro Ludvig Aberg was alone in breaking 70 on Friday, and there were only two sub-70 scores on Saturday, including the 69 that put Collin Morikawa into the last group on Sunday, where he’ll share the stage with Scheffler.
“I’ve never seen the golf course like this,” Morikawa said afterward. “Those finishing holes, even as you make the turn through nine. I’m sure that front nine is going to be very, very crusty tomorrow morning and through the afternoon. You’ve got to make sure you’ve got your right numbers and you’re leaving yourself the right approach shots and putts.”
With that said, scoring conditions are likely to be more favorable on Sunday. Not only does the forecast call for the lightest breeze of the week but Augusta National executives have a history of setting up the course to increase the potential for birdies and eagles in the final round.
While the focus should properly be on the trio at the top — Scheffler, Morikawa and Homa — don’t be surprised if one or two players who are five or six out — for instance, Cameron Smith and Xander Schauffele — put themselves into the picture as Scheffler comes down the stretch.
While DeChambeau finished with a three-over 75 on Saturday, he holed his final shot from the fairway for a birdie after hitting his drive deep into the trees off the 18th tee. Consider that a warning shot across the bow from the big group of chasers seeking to become a Masters champion in storybook fashion.
You don’t win the Masters just by holding putts, even if you do have to make some clutch ones coming down the stretch. Through three rounds, the guys who have gained the most strokes with their putting, according to the website datagolf.com, are Brian Harman (who missed the cut), Cameron Davis, Aberg and Cameron Davis.
It seems more likely that the winner will come from the group of contenders who are hitting the ball the best. Here are the top five in strokes gained, tee to green:
- Scheffler — He used a first-hole chip-in and two long birdie putts to shoot 71 and grab the lead on Saturday, but he grinds down the competition with his drives into the fairway and irons with 20 feet. His drives (+1.48) have been slightly better than his irons (+0.59) this week. The world’s No 1-ranked player is trying to win for the third time in his last four events, and is capable of burying the competition if he has a good day.
2) Byeong Hun An — You wouldn’t have expected him, would you? The Korean known as Ben shot a 2-under 70 in his first round and enters the final round at -1. He appears to have figured something out after missing the cut in his last two events. Among the 12 players under par, his putting (-0.67 strokes gained) has helped him the least. If a few drop early, he could be play the role of surprise Cinderella.
3) Morikawa — He’s been off his game in the last couple of years but is known to be extremely tough when his iron game is on and he’s making putts. Check, and check. He birdied his first three holes Saturday and was positioned to be the 54-hole co-leader until Scheffler birdied the 18th. He’s finished in the top 10 at the last two Masters, no doubt picking up lessons that will help him Sunday.
4) Patrick Cantlay — Who knew he was even playing? The golfing introvert who now employs Tiger Wood’s long-time caddie Joe LaCava shot 70 on Saturday to get back to even par, seven shots behind Scheffler. He would probably need to cash in with multiple eagles or a long run of birdies to be a factor and mysteriously has seemed allergic to contending in majors. The way he’s hitting the ball, he’s still a good bet for a strong Sunday.
5) Homa — Maybe it’s because he’s become a sentimental favorite, but the late-blooming star seems poised for a big day. He’s been unflappable since his first-round 67. He hasn’t had a birdie in his last 32 holes but has never let his shoulders hang. He got up-and-down from a green-side bunker for par on his final hole after watching DeChambeau making his highly unlikely birdie. Per datagolf.com, only Homa and Aberg have gained at least 1.3 strokes both tee-to-green and putting. He would be at the top if there was a strokes gained, patience category.
Sleep fast. Sunday at Augusta National is around the corner.