170 Percent Of Average? – Early Hurricane Season Predictions Worrisome

Each year the Atlantic hurricane season happens, and this year will be no exception. Another staple of the year is seasonal predictions of hurricane activity. The tropical meteorologists at Colorado State University are usually first out of the gate. Earlier this week, they released their prediction for the upcoming season, and it is pretty ominous. The group expects activity to be 170% of the average. That’s more than the 130% of average number that we saw in 2023.

According to a press release from CSU Marketing and Communications, “Colorado State University hurricane researchers are predicting an extremely active Atlantic hurricane season in their initial 2024 forecast.” They predict twenty-three named storms. The average over the past 30 years is around fourteen. Of those, five are expected to be a category 3 or higher storm. In a nutshell, the team attributes much of their forecast to warm sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic basin. The press release goes on to say that their researchers are bullish for a “very active” Atlantic hurricane season because of the expected transition from El Niño to La Niña by late summer. Weather patterns tend to be more favorable for hurricane development during La Niña.

I wish this outlooked surprised me, but it has been pretty obvious that the upcoming hurricane season has the potential to be a big problem. In February I wrote a piece in Forbes.com signaling this possibility and for the very reasons mentioned. I also pointed out that 2023, a very active season, saw 20 named storms in the Atlantic basin under less favorable, on average, El Niño conditions. Oh by the way, an extremely rare tropical storm (Akará) already happened this year in the South Atlantic Ocean. That almost never happens off the Brazilian coast, but waters are warm there too.

CSU hurricane expert Dr. Phil Klotzbach says, “Our analog seasons were all very active Atlantic hurricane seasons.” What he is saying is that 2024 is showing similarities to 1878, 1926, 1998, 2010 and 2020, and those were all active seasons. For this reason, CSU scientists have high confidence in its projection of 170% of average. Other organizations like NOAA will soon release their seasonal predictions, and I expect them to be similar. CSU will also update its forecasts in June, July, and August.

Current sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Basin are already warmer than normal and exceed where they were at this time last year so buckle up. It is also important to keep seasonal predictions in perspective:

• It only takes one storm to be a “bad”season for someone.
• Accuracy can vary, but with strong signals apparent this year and in previous analogue years, uncertainty is lower.
• A large number of storms could form, but how many will make landfall?
• Use the information at hand for general planning, but pay attention to evolving conditions as the season gets going.