Last year, on the Denver Nuggets’ postseason path to winning the 2023 NBA championship, head coach Michael Malone effectively tightened his playoff rotation down to just eight players.
Those of course included Denver’s regular starting five of two-time NBA MVP Nikola Jokic and his co-pilot Jamal Murray, along with Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope.
Also locked into the mix were veterans Bruce Brown – the Nuggets’ premier free agent signing in their previous offseason – and Jeff Green, both of whom had the experience and mileage in the league to quickly become early entries into what has the often been known over his years of coaching in Denver as Malone’s “circle of trust” – that set of players who receive his benefit of the doubt that they will play the “right way,” understand the moment, and minimize mistakes at critical junctures (even if fans and analysts at times have disagreed with his evaluations).
But the eighth player in the rotation, Christian Braun, was a notable standout from the other seven, first and foremost for the simple fact that he was a rookie being trusted by a coach with a reputation – albeit an arguably inaccurate one – for an aversion to giving big minutes to young players, especially in higher-leverage situations.
Irrespective of such perceptions, Malone not only placed his confidence in the first-year wing out of Kansas, where Braun had already bolstered his championship pedigree with an NCAA title in 2022, but trusted him with significant playing time on the biggest stage, in some of the most important moments of Nuggets franchise history, including in the Finals on the team’s way to its first NBA title.
As such, expectations were high for Braun coming int this 2023-24 season. But at least by appearances, what is usually cited as a “rookie wall” delayed its arrival for Braun until his sophomore year, as his performance comparatively teetered early this season, and the more potent impact he’d made in the playoffs often appeared elusive.
But that has all seemed to change during this stretch run of the season following the mid-February All-Star break, where Braun is looking much more like the high-energy difference maker he established himself as last year.
And although this may have been highlighted most recently by back-to-back 17-point games from Braun, perhaps the most important thing that Denver’s been getting from him – and one of the most critical aspects of Malone’s trust – is a resurgence of the defensive fervor and tenacity that was the biggest part of earning him a rotation spot as a rookie in the first place.
It’s not that Braun wasn’t playing hard earlier in the season, but he’s rediscovered how to apply that in game-altering ways more successfully since the break, and the visible difference is undeniable.
That said, one non-“eye test” area where Braun’s recent improvement is apparent is in his pre- versus post-All-Star numbers. While his raw counting statistics such as points, rebounds and assists are only slightly up, his efficiency has taken a big leap from the early portion of the season.
Both his field goal and three-point percentages are up significantly, and as a result his effective field goal percentage, a more comprehensive metric which accounts for the added value of threes, has jumped nearly ten percent, per NBA.com.
And Braun’s increased efficiency most vividly stands out in the fact that his net rating, a measure of the Nuggets’ point differential while he’s on the court, has skyrocketed by 11.4 points per 100 possessions, from minus-4.2 pre-All-Star to plus-7.2 after the break. True, this has happened in the context of Denver’s overall improved bench play during this recent stretch, but his individual numbers indicate he’s every bit as much a contributor to that upswing as its beneficiary.
Another sign of Braun’s elevated play of late is the game score metric provided by Basketball-Reference, which is described as giving “a rough measure of a player’s productivity for a single game” on a scale approximating points scored, with a game score of ten being considered average.
In 75 games played this season, Braun has reached a game score of 10.0 or higher 11 times. Six of those occurred in his 55 games before the All-Star break (or 10.9% of them), while five have happened in the 20 games after (or 25.0% among that set), indicating that the frequency of his higher-impact games has increased. (It bears noting here that because Braun’s style of play is generally not of the “stat-stuffer” variety – meaning his impact doesn’t always show up with flashy numbers in the box score – it should not be inferred that all those outings with game scores below ten were poor showings. The salient point here is that he’s hitting higher peaks more often in the current stretch run.)
Along those lines of more frequent standout performances, two games which highlighted that Braun might be turning the corner took place in Denver’s wins March 9 against Utah and March 15 at San Antonio, where in the fourth quarters alone he scored eight and seven points, respectively –big relative outputs from a player averaging 7.1 on the season.
With Braun, when he does have big games on the offensive end, what often is just as impactful as the fact of his scoring is the high-energy way he does much of it, which fires up home crowds and can demoralize opponents in any venue.
Braun is seventh among all NBA players with at least 50 games in the frequency of his shots taken in transition, at 27.5%, and 52.3% of his total field goal attempts are on driving, cutting or running shots. When he’s at his best, he pushes the Nuggets’ pace, driving the court for layups and dunks off grab-and-go’s and leak-outs, often generated by steals, blocks and stops on the defensive end which he had a part in creating.
Braun’s game is preeminently defined by his intensity, energy and dynamism, but his improved three-point shooting since the All-Star break is proving to be a formidable weapon in his arsenal as well. Not having the reputation of being a lethal threat from the arc can frequently generate open looks for him when, as seen in the first clip above, as powerful gravity from a more offensively feared teammate like Jokic draws defenses in, Braun tends to find himself wide open (and his knack for understanding how to play within his own skills and limitations is part of what earned him Malone’s trust in the postseason).
And although that trust may have never waned, it is certainly in full effect now as ever.
“I thought Christian Braun off the bench was just phenomenal,” Malone said after Denver’s recent win against Portland. “Energy is one thing. But also, he produced. He contributed across the whole entire board, and that’s not just effort, that’s also talent and skill, and I thought that CB was just incredible tonight.”
“He just plays in attack mode all the time, and he’s one guy off the bench who I never have to worry if he’s gonna play hard,” Malone added. “And that’s why aside from him and Reggie [Jackson] off the bench, I don’t know who’s gonna play in the playoffs.”
But Malone clearly plans for Braun to be a lock, and he and the Nuggets will be realying on him throughout the postseason to continue riding his wave of recent success, and hopefully all the way to a repeat championship.