On Wednesday, Philadelphia 76ers head coach Nick Nurse told reporters that there was “a very good likelihood” of star center Joel Embiid returning from his meniscus injury before the end of the 2023-24 NBA regular season on April 14. Embiid hasn’t played since suffering the injury against the Golden State Warriors in late January and undergoing a procedure on his knee shortly thereafter.
“I would imagine he’s getting better each day,” Nurse added. “It’s just trying to get him strong and confident and in shape and ramped up and all those wonderful words.”
On ESPN’s NBA Countdown, Adrian Wojnarowski said “it is not a question of if, but when” Embiid returns. He said Embiid is “moving well” and “has looked good on the court,” which reportedly has the Sixers optimistic that he could be back with a few games left in the regular season.
Following practice on Thursday, Nurse told reporters that Embiid did “skill work” against other players, although he declined to provide an official timeline for his return. However, Embiid is traveling with the Sixers’ on their two-game road trip to Cleveland (Friday) and Toronto (Sunday), which seemingly suggests that he isn’t far away from getting back on the floor.
The Sixers began teasing at his return Thursday on social media, too.
Regardless of when he returns, Embiid won’t have much time to get back up to speed before the postseason begins. However, his return could give the Sixers far more upside than a typical team in their seeding range.
Right now, the Sixers are the No. 8 seed in the Eastern Conference, which means they’d face the No. 7 seed Miami Heat in the play-in tournament. They’re currently 1.5 games behind the No. 6 seed Indiana Pacers with only nine games left in their season, although the Heat do still have games remaining against both the Sixers and Pacers. There’s still time for those three to jostle for seeding.
If the Sixers can’t jump over the Heat and Pacers for the No. 6 seed, they won’t be guaranteed to make the playoffs. If they lost to the Heat in the 7-8 game, they’d face the winner of the 9-10 matchup between the Chicago Bulls and Atlanta Hawks in a win-or-go-home game. It’d be hardly ideal to face stakes like that with Embiid trying to work his way back from a two-month layoff.
If the Sixers win the 7-8 game, they’d likely face their former head coach, Doc Rivers, and the Milwaukee Bucks in the first round. If they lose the 7-8 game but beat the Hawks or Bulls, they’d be locked into a matchup with the rival Boston Celtics, who have tormented them in recent years and are cruising toward the league’s best record this season. Either way, they’re probably in for a brutal first-round matchup.
Still, it’s worth remembering how well the Sixers were playing before Embiid went down.
On Jan. 22, Embiid scored a franchise-record 70 points against the San Antonio Spurs and soon-to-be Rookie of the Year Victor Wembanyama. At the time, the Sixers were tied with the Oklahoma City Thunder for the fourth-best record in the NBA, trailing only the Celtics, Bucks and Minnesota Timberwolves. They also had the second-best net rating in the league, behind only the Celtics.
A soft stretch of the schedule in December helped the Sixers beef up their record and advanced metrics, but it wasn’t as though they solely feasted on cupcakes. Embiid dropped 51 points on 17-of-25 shooting and 12 rebounds against the Timberwolves and Defensive Player of the Year front-runner Rudy Gobert on Dec. 20, while Tyrese Maxey had 35 points on 12-of-24 shooting and five assists in that same game. Embiid also had 35 points, 11 rebounds and nine assists in a road win over the Thunder in late November.
Prior to his injury, Embiid was leading the league in scoring for the third straight season with a career-high 35.3 points on 53.3% shooting, 11.3 rebounds, a career-high 5.7 assists and 1.8 blocks in only 34.0 minutes per game. He was seemingly barreling toward his second straight MVP award, provided he played in at least 65 games. (He did not.)
Since Embiid went down, the Sixers flipped Marcus Morris, Furkan Korkmaz and Patrick Beverley at the trade deadline for Buddy Hield and Cameron Payne. They also signed veteran guard Kyle Lowry, whom the Charlotte Hornets waived after acquiring him from the Miami Heat in the Terry Rozier trade. Lowry has started in all but three of his 16 appearances with the Sixers, while Hield scored 15.4 points and shot 42.3% from deep on 8.1 three-point attempts per game during his first 12 games with the team.
Once Embiid returns, Hield might benefit from his gravitational pull on defenders more than anyone else on the roster. Hield is a career 40.0% three-point shooter on 7.6 attempts per game, and Embiid has formed potent partnerships in the past with sharpshooters such as JJ Redick and Seth Curry. Dribble handoffs between Hield and Embiid should be just as lethal, not to mention three-man actions incorporating Lowry or Maxey.
Hield isn’t the only Sixer who misses the attention that Embiid draws from opposing teams. Embiid is the Sixers’ focal point on both ends of the floor, so all of his teammates have been affected by his absence. His return should help create easier shots for everyone, and he’ll help cover up some defensive mistakes as well.
If the Sixers do make it to the playoffs, they figure to be an underdog against whichever team they face in the first round, whether it’s the Celtics, Bucks, New York Knicks or Cleveland Cavaliers. But depending on who they draw and how Embiid looks physically upon his return, they could be a trendy pick to upset their higher-seeded opponent.
Embiid’s seemingly imminent return has turned the Sixers into the NBA’s biggest wild card heading into April. They might not even make the playoffs, but they have the ceiling of a legitimate championship contender.
Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac or RealGM. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.