The biggest games are generating the biggest bets and more watch and wager action as the 2024 NFL Playoffs divisional round matchups determine next week’s conference championship teams. Two of them will be decided on Sunday, Jan. 21 when the Buccaneers tackle the Lions in Detroit, and the Chiefs battle the Bills in Buffalo.
Bettors are all over the Chiefs-Bills game at leading online sportsbooks.
“Chiefs-Bills will be the most-bet game, but we need one of the big underdogs to at least cover,” BetMGM’s Christian Cipollini said. “An upset by the Texans, Packers or Buccaneers would make our weekend.”
The top-seed Baltimore Ravens have secured their spot as the AFC championship game with a 34-10 win over the upstart Houston Texans. The Texans put up a good fight in a game tied 10-10 at haltime thanks to a 67-yard punt return TD by Steven Sims, who had odds of 27/1 to score an anytime touchdown.
Bettors continue to pound the props while also adding more watch and wager action during games with in-play live betting.
The San Francisco 49ers have playmakers across the board on offense including the NFL’s leading rusher Christian McCaffrey. But he’s been slowed with just 33 rushing yards versus the Green Bay Packers as that NFC divisional game goes to halftime with the 49ers leading 7-6 as a 10-point favorite as this article goes to post.
Tampa Bay at Detroit Prop Bets
Pro football odds from FanDuel Sportsbook refresh periodically and are subject to change, including on props and live betting. Point spreads listed on favorites. All times Eastern.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions (-6.5), total 49.5
Expect Buccaneers head coach and defensive guru Todd Bowles to bring pressure often against Lions QB Jared Goff and his protectors. Goff has seven turnovers when blitzed this season (T2 most), and the Bucs defense has blitzed on 41% of dropbacks by opposing quarterbacks (T3 highest rate).
So I like Goff to be dumping off some short passes, and include speed-in-space rookie RB Jahmyr Gibbs as a key target. See video of Gibbs’ breakout game in the Week 8 win over the Raiders.
Gibbs has failed to go over his receiving yards prop (22.5 yards) in this game in his last seven contests to close the regular season after picking up at least 35 receiving yards in four straight games in Oct-Nov. Then in last week’s 24-23 playoff win over the Rams, Gibbs had 4 receptions for 43 yards. The Bucs blitzing and pressure should open up more opportunitie for Gibbs to be a key player in the short receiving game as the Buccaneers defensive backs focus on slowing leading receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown, who went off for 110 yards on 7 catches last week.
This is a game I projected over the total, and the Bucs-Lions props are most popular with the game total also rising from 48.5 up to 49.5 and even 50.5 at select online sportsbooks. While QB Jared Goff could clearly go off to most popular prop player Amon Ra St. Brown, it’s Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield who I anticipate throwing more go routes and deep balls.
“A Buccaneers win would be a great result for the book,” says the FanDuel trading team. “The public is also anticipating Amon-Ra St. Brown to continue his hot streak as nearly all the bets on his receiving yards have been on overs.”
In the Lions Week 6 road win at Tampa, 20-6, Goff passed 44 times for 353 yards. Mayfield was just 19/37 for 206 yards for his worst completion percentage of the season. But Baker threw a league-high 27% of his passes 20 or more yards down the field (air yards) that week. The Lions outside cornerbacks surrendered 9.6 yards per target in 2023 – the weak link of the Lions defense while also running the 10th most man coverage this season out of 32 NFL teams. Also, in three road games this season against playoff teams, Mayfield went over 21 completions against the Bills, 49ers and Packers with at least 237 passing yards in all three games.
The Lions pass defense allowed 7.3 yards per pass attempt this season to rank No. 31 in the league. Then last week, Rams QB Matthew Stafford tore apart the Lions secondary completing 25-of-36 passes for 367 yards and 2 touchdowns, averaging 10.2 yards per pass.
- Lions QB Jared Goff passing yards: Over/Under 272.5
- Bucs QB Baker Mayfield passing yards: O/U 260.5 – bet over and also over 21.5 completions
- Lions RB David Montgomery rushing yards: O/U 55.5
- Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs rushing yards: O/U 48.5
- Bucs RB Rachaad White rushing yards: O/U 53.5
- Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown receiving yards: O/U 91.5
- Lions WR Josh Reynolds receiving yards: O/U 42.5
- Lions WR Jameson Williams receiving yards: O/U 33.5
- Lions TE Sam LaPorta receivng yards: O/U 41.5
- Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs receiving yards: O/U 22.5 – bet over yards & 3.5 receptions
- Bucs WR Mike Evans receiving yards: O/U 72.5
- Bucs WR Chris Godwin receivng yards: O/U 63.5
- Bucs TE Cade Otton receiving yards: O/U 29.5
- WR Trey Palmer receiving yards: O/U 17.5
Kansas City at Buffalo Prop Bets
The most bet game of the divisional round by Sunday night kickoff will be the Chiefs-Bills battle, which also has Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes as the most popular prop and player to score a touchdown at FanDuel. Mahomes’ anytime TD odds are +550 with 11 players having lower odds to score a TD than Mahomes.
Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills (-2.5), total 45.5
Despite the Bills coming in as betting favorites, the public still believes in the Chiefs and Mahomes.
“A Bills home win would be a big win for the book,” says FanDuel’s trading team. “The public also believes Patrick Mahomes will work his playoff magic and score a touchdown as he has been our most bet Anytime Touchdown Scorer in that game so far.”
As I noted in recent NFL playoffs coverage, the Bills have averaged a league-high 35.4 rush attempts per game since Week 10. The Bills have now won six-straight games following last week’s 31-17 wild card win over the Steelers when the Buffalo Bills stampeded their way to victory with 34 rushes for 175 yards including 18 for 79 yards by James Cook and 8 for 74 yards and a TC by Josh Allen.
Both Cook and Allen ran 10 times for 58 and 32 yards respectively in the Bills 20-17 Week 14 victory over the Chiefs in Kansas City. The Bills are now both 6-1 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) versus 2023 playoff teams while the Chiefs are 2-4 SU/ATS with both of their wins coming against the Dolphins. The Bills have out-gained those playoff opponents by 652 yards while the Chiefs have out-gained their playoff opponents by 140 yards after out-gaining the Dolphins by 145 yards in last week’s 26-7 wild card win.
The Chiefs have a situational edge with eight days preparation versus six days for the Bills after last week’s wild card game was pushed back to Monday due to severe weather in Buffalo. The NFL weather will be cold again in Orchard Park, NY at less than 20 degrees and 10 mph winds. The Bills will lean on their fans, weather and strong home field environment at Highmark Stadium. Buffalo is 24-5 in December/January games since 2020 including playoffs. But the Chiefs are 21-6 with a rest advantage since the 2018 season when Mahomes took over as their starter – the most wins in the league with a rest advantage.
- Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes passing yards: Over/Under 254.5 – bet under
- Bills QB Josh Allen passing yards: O/U 227.5
- Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco rushing yards: O/U 63.5
- Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes rushing yards: O/U 26.5
- Bills RB James Cook rushing yards: O/U 61.5 – bet over 14.5 rush attempts
- Bills QB Josh Allen rushing yards: O/U 43.5
- Chiefs WR Rashee Rice receiving yards: O/U 71.5
- Chiefs TE Travis Kelce receiving yards: O/U 61.5
- Chiefs WR Justin Watson receiving yards: O/U 19.5
- Chiefs WR Mecole Hardman receiving yards: O/U 17.5
- Bills WR Stefon Diggs receivng yards: O/U 59.5
- Bills TE Dalton Kincaid receiving yards: O/U 40.5
- Bills RB James Cook receiving yards: O/U 18.5
The stakes continue to rise as the NFL playoff excitement and betting action builds towards the prop-fest Super Bowl jackpot Feb. 11 in Las Vegas. Fans are getting in the game with more betting opportunties including player prop bets to stay more engaged as they watch and wager on the NFL playoffs.
You can bet on it.