NFL Week 12 has 11 games on Sunday afternoon, with seven games in the 1:00 p.m. ET window, two contests starting at 4:05 p.m. ET and two beginning at 4:25 p.m. ET. Readers should check out two intriguing player props from the 1:00 p.m. ET games. However, the NFL Week 12 four-game late-afternoon slate also has a nifty rushing over for a veteran running back and a receiving over for a stud tight end.
NFL Week 12 Player Props
Alvin Kamara (New Orleans Saints – RB)
Over 55.5 Rushing Yards (-110) at BetMGM
Alvin Kamara showed no signs of slowing down in his age-29 season in 2024. Sadly, he’s struggled this year. Among 54 running backs with at least 50 rush attempts this season, Kamara is 29th in rushing yards per game (46.0), 48th in yards per carry (3.59), tied for 29th in yards before contact per attempt (1.88), 51st in yards after contact per attempt (1.72), 40th in explosive-run rate (3.1%), tied for 51st in success rate (41.4%) and tied for 51st in success rate (41.4%). There isn’t a favorable way to slice up Kamara’s rushing work.
Regardless, Kamara’s line of 55.5 rushing yards at BetMGM isn’t particularly high for a workhorse running back. Kamara has cleared that mark three times in 10 games this season. The veteran running back had a whopping 83 rushing yards on 22 carries in a 17-7 victory against the Panthers in Week 10, and he should have relatively fresh legs coming out of the bye.
Kamara has a Charmin-soft matchup this week, too. The Falcons have allowed the sixth-most rushing yards per game (112.0) to running backs this season. Atlanta hasn’t shown any signs of snapping out of their funk against the run, either. The Falcons have allowed the third-most rushing yards per game (163.0) and 4.66 yards per carry since Week 7.
Atlanta has permitted six running backs to exceed 55.5 rushing yards against them this year, including four in their past six games. Teams have understandably attacked them on the ground. Atlanta is tied for the seventh-highest situation-neutral rush rate (46%) faced this season. The runout should be optimal for Kamara’s rushing outlook since the Saints are 2.0-point favorites at home this week. Kamara’s over for 55.5 rushing yards against the Falcons is one of NFL Week 12 late-afternoon’s best player props to bet on.
Trey McBride (Arizona Cardinals – TE)
Over 75.5 Receiving Yards (-114) at FanDuel Sportsbook
Jacoby Brissett has spun the pigskin since replacing an injured Kyler Murray as Arizona’s starting quarterback. Since Week 6, Brissett’s 314.0 passing yards per game have paced the NFL. Brissett and the Cardinals are facing the biggest pass-funnel defense in the NFL in Week 12. Jacksonville’s 65% situation-neutral pass rate against them this season is the highest in the league. The Jaguars have also faced a 66% situation-neutral pass rate since Week 7.
Meanwhile, in Brissett’s starts, the Cardinals have had a 64% situation-neutral pass rate. So, they won’t need to have their arm twisted to sling it against the Jaguars. When Brissett has aired it out, Trey McBride has been the apple of his eye.
Since Week 6, McBride has had an 86.7% route participation rate, 7.8-yard average depth of target (aDOT), 25.8% air yards share, 25.8% target share, 0.26 targets per route run (TPRR), 42 receptions (8.4 per game), 443 receiving yards (88.6 per game) and 2.12 yards per route run (Y/RR). McBride hasn’t merely put up excellent receiving numbers for a tight end. His work would stand out among the best wide receivers in the NFL.
McBride has ripped off 72, 74, 55, 127 and 115 receiving yards in Brissett’s starts. He’s posted over 100 receiving yards in back-to-back games, and the Jaguars are ill-equipped to cool him off. Jacksonville has allowed the sixth-most receiving yards per game (69.4) to tight ends this year.
The Jaguars have allowed only one tight end to clear 75.5 receiving yards against them this year. Jacksonville hasn’t faced the most imposing collection of tight ends, and McBride is arguably the NFL’s best. Brock Bowers is also in the discussion for the NFL’s top tight end, and he was the tight end who exceeded 75.5 receiving yards against the Jaguars, cooking them for 127 receiving yards in Week 9.
McBride should be busy early and often on Sunday afternoon. As a result, he should clear 75.5 receiving yards, making his prop one of NFL Week 12’s most alluring wagers.