The NFL Week 12 Sunday slate starts with seven games in the 1:00 p.m. ET window. The NFL Week 12 early-afternoon slate will be the focus of the following player props. A rushing over for an electrifying running back on a heavily-favored team, and a low receiving yardage over for a young wideout with favorable underlying data stand out as the most appealing NFL Week 12 player props from the 1:00 p.m. ET contests.
NFL Week 12 Player Props
Jahmyr Gibbs (Detroit Lions – RB)
Over 70.5 Rushing Yards (-135) at Fanatics Sportsbook
Jahmyr Gibbs is one of the NFL’s most dynamic players, irrespective of position. The third-year pro is excelling as a runner this year. Among 54 running backs with at least 50 rush attempts this season, Gibbs is 10th in rushing yards per game (73.2), fourth in yards per carry (5.23), tied for second in yards before contact per attempt (3.18), sixth in explosive run rate (6.4%) and second in missed tackles forced per attempt (0.27).
Additionally, Gibbs has smashed since Dan Campbell took over play-calling duties for the Lions in Week 10. In two games with Detroit’s head coach calling the offense, Gibbs has handled 27 rush attempts for 181 rushing yards (90.5 per game), 6.70 yards per carry, 3.85 yards before contact per attempt, 2.85 yards after contact per attempt, a 7.4% explosive run rate and 0.33 missed tackles forced per attempt. By comparison, David Montgomery had 21 rush attempts for 98 yards (49.0 per game), with less-impressive advanced metrics.
Gibbs is Detroit’s clear lead runner, and he has a mouthwatering matchup on Sunday afternoon. The Giants have allowed the third-most rushing yards per game (116.8) to running backs this season. Big Blue is also in dreadful form, ceding the second-most rushing yards per game (175.2), 5.96 yards per carry and an NFL-high 11.6% explosive run rate since Week 7.
Gibbs should run roughshod over the G-Men for the 12.5-point favored Lions. The line of 70.5 rushing yards at Fanatics Sportsbook for Gibbs is a gift for over bettors relative to 78.5 at Bet MGM. The -135 listing at Fanatics is slightly chalky, so gamblers could consider taking over 73.5 at a more palatable -110 listing at DraftKings Sportsbook, but the lower line of 70.5 is my preference.
Adonai Mitchell (New York Jets – WR)
Over 31.5 Receiving Yards (-118) at BetMGM
Adonai Mitchell had a forgettable rookie campaign after the Colts selected him with the 52nd pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, averaging a paltry 18.4 receiving yards per game. He found himself down the depth chart, and Mitchell didn’t make any headway this year. As a result, the Colts included him in a blockbuster package for Sauce Gardner.
The Jets wasted no time thrusting him into a prominent role. Mitchell had only a 34.1% route participation rate as a rookie and just a 20.9% route participation rate through eight games with the Colts this year before logging a 60.6% route participation rate for the Jets in Week 11.
The sophomore speedster had just one reception for 10 yards against the Patriots. However, Mitchell was third on Gang Green in route participation rate and first in air yards share (53.3%), target share (22.2%) and first-read rate (40.0%). Sadly, he also had three drops. Mitchell can excel if he cleans up his drops, and his underlying data suggests better days lie ahead.
The Ravens could bring the best out of him this week. Baltimore has the seventh-highest man-coverage rate (35.5%) and the third-highest single-high coverage rate (60.0%) this year. Mitchell, on an admittedly small sample last year and this season, has barbecued both coverages. He had 0.44 targets per route run (TPRR) and 2.60 yards per route run (Y/RR) on 57 routes against man and 0.35 TPRR and 3.19 Y/RR against single-high coverage last season. Mitchell has 0.50 TPRR and 2.89 Y/RR on 18 routes against man and 0.34 TPRR and 3.34 Y/RR on 38 routes against single-high coverage this season.
Mitchell doesn’t have to have a massive game to clear the low bar of 31.5 receiving yards. Additionally, it’s a relative bargain versus 35.5 receiving yards at other sportsbooks, making Mitchell’s over for 31.5 receiving yards one of the top NFL Week 12 player props.