A Bills team coming off a spectacular 44-32 win over the Buccaneers pays a visit to a surging Texans squad in what is a key Week 12 matchup for both teams.
Here are three TNF prop bets to consider before the primetime clash kicks off:
Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills
- Under 225.5 passing yards (-113 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
Allen is averaging 245.6 passing yards per contest, but that figure is largely the result of a trio of 300-yard efforts where the Bills had no choice but to throw. Otherwise, Allen has passed for 213 yards or less in five of his other seven contests, and Thursday’s matchup appears to shape up as one where the star QB could have one of his lower-percentile performances through the air.
The first and most prominent factor is simply the caliber of the Texans’ defense. Houston is surrendering the fourth-lowest yards per completion of any team on its home field (8.8), along with an NFL-low 54.5% completion rate in that split. The Texans also have nine picks and 25 sacks, and their 7.9% pressure rate ranks them in the top half of the league.
Then, Allen is averaging a relatively modest 20.4 completions per game, and given how effective Houston’s defense has been keeping plays in front of them – the Texans are ranked in the top 10 with a 5.1% explosive play rate allowed – any connections he does make are likely to be for modest yardage, especially since star tight end Dalton Kincaid, who’s averaging a career-best 15.4 yards per grab, will remain sidelined because of a hamstring injury.
Woody Marks, RB, Houston Texans
- Over 60.5 rushing yards (-118 on BetRivers Sportsbook)
Marks appears to be the clear No. 1 option in the Texans’ ground attack, as he’s logged double-digit carries in five straight games and has out-touched backfield mate Nick Chubb on the ground by a 32-8 margin in the last pair of contests.
The versatile rookie has also eclipsed 60 rushing yards in two of his last four contests, and while the Texans’ offensive line’s spotty blocking has capped his upside at times, this matchup may be one where he can overcome those challenges and put together strong production on the ground.
The Bills’ run defense has repeatedly been gashed this season, allowing the third-highest RB yards (5.36) while surrendering the fifth-most second-level yards (1.28) and most open-field yards (1.73) per carry, per FTN Fantasy. That gives Marks, who has a 76.8% positive-run rate per RotoWire and nine runs of 10+ yards, plenty of opportunity to rattle of some chunk gains.
It’s also worth noting Buffalo is facing an AFC-high 48.6% opponent rushing play rate, including an even more elevated 50.2% rate on the road.
Nico Collins, WR, Houston Texans
- Under 74.5 receiving yards (-110 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
Just as Allen is expected to find success through the air challenging to come by Thursday, the same is also very likely to hold true for the Texans’ air attack, Collins included. To begin with, the star receiver will once again be operating with No. 2 signal-caller Davis Mills, as C.J. Stroud will remain out due to his concussion.
Granted, Collins has actually enjoyed plenty of success with Mills under center in the last two games while generating a 16-228-1 line on 25 targets, but the matchup is completely on a different level than those against the Jaguars and Titans in which he posted those numbers.
As poor as the Bills’ run defense has been, Buffalo has usually been a formidable unit against the pass, surrendering the eighth-lowest yards per completion (9.7) on the road and the fifth-lowest completion percentage overall (61.8), including 55.4% in the last three games. Buffalo is also tied for the sixth-fewest receptions surrendered to WRs (104) while yielding a modest 63.4% catch rate to the position.
Collins has fallen short of the yardage threshold for this prop in four of nine games, and the Bills have given up an average of 68.2 receiving yards per contest to WR1s while holding the likes of Garrett Wilson, Tyreek Hill, and Chris Olave to 50 receiving yards or less.