Sunday’s NFL Week 11 contests begin at 9:30 a.m. ET with a game in Madrid. The action picks up steam with seven games starting at 1:00 p.m. ET. The late afternoon doesn’t lack games, though, with two starting at 4:05 p.m. ET and two starting at 4:25 p.m. ET. Among the NFL Week 11 late-afternoon contests, two player props stand out from the pack.
NFL Week 11 Player Props
Lamar Jackson (Baltimore Ravens – QB)
Under 209.5 Passing Yards (-114) at FanDuel Sportsbook
Lamar Jackson has played in only six games this season because of a hamstring injury. Still, the two-time MVP has played well when he’s suited up. Jackson has averaged 208.2 passing yards per game, with a median of 206.5. Even though he’s been efficient, his average and median are below his line of 209.5 passing yards, and he’s fallen short of that mark three times this season.
Jackson carved up the Browns for 225 passing yards in Week 2. However, that was before he injured his hamstring, and that contest was in Baltimore. Jackson has had two of his three lowest passing yardage outputs since returning from his injury.
Additionally, the Browns are stingier against the pass at home than on the road. Cleveland has surrendered 227.5 passing yards per game, 8.27 yards per pass attempt and 8.19 adjusted net yards per pass attempt in four road tilts. In four home games, the Browns have held their opponents to 179.3 passing yards per game, 6.29 yards per pass attempt and 4.00 adjusted net yards per pass attempt. Their home-road splits are night and day, heavily favoring home games.
The Browns have allowed only four quarterbacks to clear 209.5 passing yards this year. Moreover, Carson Wentz was the only quarterback to exceed that mark against the Browns in a home game, and that wasn’t an actual home game. Instead, the game was played at Tottenham Stadium. In three true home games, the Browns have allowed just 149.7 passing yards per game, 5.68 per pass attempt and 2.46 adjusted net yards per pass attempt. Jordan Love’s 183 passing yards against the Browns in Week 3 were the most accumulated against Cleveland at Huntington Bank Field.
The game’s spread and weather are also critical considerations for Jackson’s passing outlook. The Ravens are 7.5-point favorites, which would reduce their need to pass the ball late if the game plays out as expected. Finally, the weather forecast calls for sustained winds at 20 mph, with gusts around 30 mph. Jackson is unlikely to exceed his season average and median for passing yards in a nightmare matchup with windy conditions, putting him under his line of 209.5 passing yards.
Greg Dortch (Arizona Cardinals – WR)
Over 3.5 Receptions (+116) at FanDuel Sportsbook
Greg Dortch has been buried on Arizona’s depth chart this year. The diminutive wideout’s 31.0% route participation rate is fourth among the team’s wide receivers. The Cardinals will need to push him up the pecking order this week, though.
Marvin Harrison Jr. is out this week after undergoing emergency surgery for appendicitis, and Zay Jones was placed on the injured reserve (IR). Trey McBride will retain his ball-hog role in the passing attack and could see even more targets. Nevertheless, the 3.0-point underdog Cardinals will need others to pick up the slack for the absences in their passing attack.
Dortch has previously demonstrated the ability to earn targets at a stellar rate, and his 69.2% slot rate this year bodes well for his target outlook against the 49ers. San Francisco has faced the fifth-highest target rate to the slot (34.4%) this year and an even higher 38.9% slot target rate since Week 6. In addition, the 49ers have allowed 16 wide receivers to exceed 3.5 receptions this season.
Dortch is also attached to a hot passer. Since Week 6, Jacoby Brissett is second in passing yards per game (279.5) and has completed 95 passes (23.75 per game) in those four games. Brissett should direct enough of his pass attempts to Dortch to allow the 27-year-old wide receiver to record at least four receptions this week.