The NFL Week 11 slate is packed with games, with just two teams on a bye. Sunday’s action starts at 9:30 a.m. ET in Madrid, followed by seven games at 1:00 p.m. ET, two at 4:05 p.m. ET, two at 4:25 p.m. ET and Sunday Night Football at 8:20 p.m. ET. Among the NFL Week 11 early-afternoon contests, overs for two featured running backs stand out as enticing wagers.
NFL Week 11 Player Props
Rico Dowdle (Carolina Panthers – RB)
Over 100.5 Rushing-Plus-Receiving Yards (-120) at Fanatics Sportsbook
Rico Dowdle didn’t begin the season as Carolina’s lead running back. Instead, he was behind Chuba Hubbard on the depth chart out of the gates. Dowdle had under a 40% snap share in the first four games this year before stepping up for a 67% snap share without Hubbard in Week 5. Hubbard returned from his injury in Week 7, creating a two-headed backfield that week and the following week. However, it was apparent that Dowdle was the more effective running back, and head coach Dave Canales made the wise decision to bump Dowdle ahead of Hubbard on the depth chart, resulting in snap shares of 72% and 79% in Week 9 and Week 10, respectively.
Dowdle has played at least a 67% snap share in four games. The 27-year-old running back was sensational as a bell-cow running back in those contests. Dowdle logged 96 rush attempts, 572 rushing yards (143.0 per game), 5.96 yards per carry, a 7.3% explosive-run rate, a 47.7 %route participation rate, 15 targets (3.8 per game), 0.28 targets per route run, 12 receptions (3.0 per game) and 105 receiving yards (26.3 per game).
Thus, Dowdle recorded 677 rush-plus-receiving yards (169.25 per game) in his four games as Carolina’s featured running back. He surpassed 100.5 rushing-plus-receiving yards in three of those four contests.
Dowdle has a tantalizing matchup for another triple-digit yardage output in Week 11. The Falcons have coughed up 1,052 rushing yards (116.9 per game) and 286 receiving yards (31.8 per game) to running backs in nine games this season. Moreover, Atlanta has yielded the second-most rushing yards per game (176.4) since Week 6. Finally, Dowdle’s line of 100.5 rushing-plus-receiving yards available at Fanatics Sportsbook is a steal for the over compared to 109.5 rushing-plus-receiving yards at most other sportsbooks.
Jaylen Warren (Pittsburgh Steelers – RB)
Over 75.5 Rushing Yards (-120) at Fanatics Sportsbook
Arthur Smith loves running backs and tight ends. While the former head coach and current offensive coordinator for the Steelers has a track record of rotating players at both positions, Jaylen Warren has been fed a hefty workload this season.
Warren has amassed at least 11 rush attempts in all eight games he’s suited up for this year. The fourth-year pro has averaged just 59.3 rushing yards per game, with a median of only 50 rushing yards. Both of those marks are well short of his line of 75.5 rushing yards.
Fortunately, the only time Warren exceeded 75.5 rushing yards was against the Bengals in Week 7, when he ran for a season-high 127 yards. Cincinnati’s defense is a disaster. They’ve surrendered an NFL-high 141.1 rushing yards per game to running backs this season. The Giants are a distant second, allowing 119.7 rushing yards per game to running backs this year.
The Bengals have allowed six running backs to exceed 75.5 rushing yards in nine games this year. They’ve allowed a running back to surpass that mark in each of their previous four games. Furthermore, the Bengals have allowed an NFL-high 209.3 rushing yards per game at a blistering 6.59 yards per carry since Week 6. The Steelers are 5.5-point favorites this week, setting the stage for a positive game script to feed Warren the rock on the ground. He should once again trounce the Bengals for more than 75.5 rushing yards in the rematch.