The Northern Lights (also called the aurora borealis) may be visible in northern skies across 22 northern U.S. states “from the lower Midwest to Oregon” as soon as it gets dark on Thursday, Nov. 6, according to an upgraded forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Space Weather Prediction Center.
The forecast states an unusually strong G3 (strong) geomagnetic storm will result from the arrival at Earth of a coronal mass ejection, with “a fair measure of confidence.”
Northern Lights Tonight: Solar Flares
With solar maximum — the peak of the sun’s 11-year cycle — now in the rearview mirror, solar activity is calming.
However, the few years after the peak can see intense outbursts, as occurred on Nov. 4 when X1.1 and X1.8 solar flares were unleashed. There were also two slightly weaker M-class solar flares, rated M3.5 and M7.4, on either side of the X-class events.
In their wake, clouds of charged particles called coronal mass ejections left the sun, which can cause geomagnetic storms — and displays of the Northern Lights.
Northern Lights Tonight: What To Expect
The latest forecast from NOAA calls for a G3-rated geomagnetic storm after dark in North America on Thursday, Nov. 6, stretching into the pre-dawn hours of Friday, Nov. 7.
According to NOAA’s aurora view line, 21 states could see displays of the Northern Lights in northern skies. It’s unknown how these CMEs will affect Earth, but the uncertainty makes this alert worth watching.
Northern Lights Tonight: Where And When
NOAA’s latest aurora viewlines indicate that aurora displays are a possibility in northern U.S. states and Canada, with 22 U.S. states having a chance after dark on Thursday, Nov. 6.
U.S. states that may see aurora include Alaska, Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New York, Massachusetts, Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine.
For the best views, locate a dark place using the Dark Sky Place Finder and a light pollution map. The darker the northern sky, the more vibrant the display — even during moderate geomagnetic storms.
Northern Lights Forecast: Latest Updates
To check visibility in real time, use NOAA’s 30-minute aurora forecast, or download apps such as Aurora Now, My Aurora Forecast or Glendale Aurora for up-to-the-minute alerts and live solar wind data.
Aurora-chasers frequently use the Kp index to predict the intensity of a geomagnetic storm, but for aurora displays, the interplanetary magnetic field’s Bz component is more important (you’ll find it in some of the above apps and on SpaceWeatherLive.com). Bz determines how easily solar energy enters Earth’s magnetosphere. When Bz points north, Earth’s field resists it; when Bz swings south, the two fields connect, allowing plasma to stream in. A sustained southward Bz of −5 nT or stronger usually signals an imminent display of aurora.
What Causes The Northern Lights
The solar wind causes the Northern Lights — streams of charged particles flowing from the sun and interacting with Earth’s magnetic field. While most are deflected, some particles spiral along magnetic field lines toward the poles, colliding with oxygen and nitrogen atoms high in the atmosphere. These collisions excite the gases, causing them to release energy as shimmering light.
Wishing you clear skies and wide eyes.