When George W Bush became president of the United States in 2000, following the relative calm and prosperity of the Clinton years, he was surrounded by a group of advisers called the ‘neo-cons’, who significance grew in the aftermath of the September 11 attack on America.
The term ‘neo-con’ stemmed from Irving Kristol, one of the intellectual forces behind the right in American politics, who famously defined neo-conservatives as ‘liberals mugged by reality’.
In particular, the neo-cons’ policy approach was associated with an aggressively militaristic foreign policy, as exemplified in the invasion of Iraq. Though the neo-cons pre-figured Donald Trump, they now likely feel a diminished ideological attachment to him.
Today, as last week’s EU Summit in Copenhagen heralds the need for shift towards a tougher European policy stance on Russia, the time has come for Europe to have its neo-con moment, as centrist governments wake up to a geopolitical mugging by Russia, China and increasingly, the USA.
The extent of the Chinese pilferage of British state secrets is becoming clearer, the German intelligence services warn of subversion, manipulation and infiltration of German institutions by Russia and the fact that the Dutch intelligence agency has announced that it will curb intelligence sharing with Washington, lest its secrets are passed to the Kremlin, are all alarming. As evidence of these and other incursions grow, multiple European countries – Denmark and Sweden for example – have placed themselves on a war footing.
At one level, the response of European countries (UK included) has been impressive. Germany has swept aside its debt brake and will spend up to Eur 1 trillion on defence in coming years, the UK has been an unwavering backer of Ukraine in its defence against Russian aggression, and there is now a defence start-up mania across Europe.
However, there are plenty of signs to suggest that Europe’s centrists have not come to terms with the vandalization of its democracies and institutions by outside actors. For example, tens of thousands of Chinese students populate UK universities, the south of France, Vienna and parts of Italy are host to wealthy Russians, and the EC is far too forgiving of the obstructionism of Viktor Orban. At the country level, there are notable laggards, Spain and Ireland stand out as nations that are ripe for a ‘mugging’.
Following Captain Bligh’s dictum that ‘the beatings will continue until morale improves’, Europe will have to become more absolutist in its dealings with the world beyond, and in terms of the measures it will need to protect its democracy.
The question then, is whether Europe is on the verge of a neo-con moment and what that might look like.
One response might be to list a series of necessary actions – a mechanism that might allow the EU to exclude recalcitrant members like Hungary, a more unforgiving policy on immigration, or a fuller ‘shadow’ war against Russia, or even an aggressive acceleration of the savings and investment union (unlikely I fear).
A better signal would be a change in mentality. The EU and the UK currently march to the beat of every incursion and slight from the likes of Russia, or to the tone of every tweet from the US president. Europe will have to play at its own tempo, and more frequently up the ante in areas where it is capable of doing so. It must also change the international narrative around Europe, where it is cast as an ineffectual geopolitical actor and economic weakling.
The great pity, and a sign of a world that is being degraded, is that after a long period of globalisation when international democracy flourished, Europe could well end up as the last pocket of liberal democracy in the world. Whilst this is viewed as a vulnerability from Beijing and Moscow, and with disdain by others, for the vast majority of people around the world – education, healthcare and civil, open societies, all key characteristics of the European model, are what they crave. In years to come, Europe may be the only large region where the rule of law matters, and where institutions are stable.
A Europe that is ‘mugged by reality’ will in time act in a more ruthless and perhaps riskier way towards non-democracies, while concurrently being more confident in its socio-political model.
This EU Summit – which dodged a number of geopolitical issues (such as the use of Russian capital) – was not yet a ‘neo-con’ moment, the issue is how bad the mugging needs to be in order to change minds.