Poland’s decision to indefinitely close its border with Belarus has blocked a critical segment of the China-Europe Railway Express, halting most rail freight between China and the European Union.
The measure, introduced on September 11 in response to Russia and Belarus’ Zapad 2025 military drills, which included a simulated nuclear strike, has stopped roughly 90% of EU-bound Chinese rail cargo. Nearly all trains to Central and Eastern Europe typically cross at the Małaszewicze-Brest junction, the main break-of-gauge hub between Belarus and the EU.
Trade corridor under pressure
The rail corridor, a key part of China’s flagship Belt and Road Initiative, has gained importance as companies increasingly look for alternatives to congested sea routes. In 2024, its cargo volume rose 10.6%, and the value of shipments jumped 85% to more than €25 billion ($29 billion), Polish government data show. That accounted for about 4% of EU-China trade and generated 740 million zloty ($200 million) in Polish customs duties.
Polish officials said the closure reflects a new “logic of security.” It’s the first time Warsaw applied restrictions, previously limited to road transport, to rail traffic. Interior Minister Marcin Kierwiński said the border will reopen only when “the safety of Poles is guaranteed and no provocations threaten us.”
Global supply chains disrupted
The shutdown has disrupted global supply chains and affected major e-commerce platforms such as Temu and Shein, which rely on the speed of the land route.
China has been considering a new maritime route through the Arctic to connect ports in Asia and Europe, made possible by melting ice and climate change. However, it’s unlikely to replace established shipping channels in the near term.
Polish rail operators, including PKP Cargo, warned that prolonged disruption on the border will force expensive rerouting via maritime shipping or a southern land corridor through Kazakhstan, the Caspian Sea, the Black Sea, and Turkey. The government has promised compensation for local businesses, but hasn’t set an amount as it’s unclear when the border would reopen.
Diplomatic responses
The European Commission has acknowledged the trade fallout but endorsed Warsaw’s stance, calling it a justified response to Russia’s “illegal and unjustified war.”
Beijing, meanwhile, has urged Poland to restore operations but stopped short of direct criticism. During a visit to Warsaw on Monday, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and his Polish counterpart Radosław Sikorski reaffirmed commitments to the “sustainable development” of bilateral trade, although Beijing’s readout omitted mention of the border closure.