On Saturday, August 16, Dricus du Plessis looks to defend his UFC middleweight title for the third time. His opponent in the main event of the UFC 319 pay-per-view fight card is the undefeated Khamzat Chimaev. Before that fight takes place, one of the biggest free agent signings in recent memory, Aaron Pico, makes his UFC debut in the UFC 319 co-main event opposite the undefeated Lerone Murphy.
We look at the full betting breakdown for the featherweight matchup between Murphy and Pico.
UFC 319 takes place at the United Center in Chicago. The UFC 319 main card streams on ESPN+ pay-per-view following prelims on ESPN and early prelims on ESPN+.
UFC 319 Co-Main Event: Lerone Murphy Vs. Aaron Pico
Lerone Murphy (16-0-1) opened his UFC career with a 2019 draw against Zubaira Tukhugov. Since then, the 34 year old has done nothing but win. Murphy has gone 8-0 with the UFC since that draw, most recently beating former UFC interim title challenger Josh Emmett by decision. Before that April 2025 victory, Murphy picked up wins over Edson Barboza and Dan Ige.
Murphy is the No. 6 ranked fighter in the official UFC 145-pound division.
Aaron Pico (13-4) joined the UFC as a free agent earlier this year. Pico was with Bellator for his entire MMA career before departing as a free agent. The 28-year-old had an up-and-down run with the promotion, but he enters UFC Abu Dhabi on a three-fight winning streak. His record in his past 10 fights is 9-1. His only loss during that span, which dates back to January 2020, is a October 2022 TKO loss to Jeremy Kennedy in a fighter were the doctor stopped the bout because Pico dislocated his shoulder.
When announcing the initial UFC 319 co-main event of Movsar Evloev vs. Pico, UFC CEO Dana White called Pico, “the guy most people consider to be the top free agent in the world.”
White added, “Aaron Pico is a ridiculously violent striker and a very high-level grappler. Pico has had hype behind him since he was a teenager because of his skill and fighting style, which people compare him to the likes of Justin Gaethje or Dustin Poirier.”
The Pico vs. Evloev fight fell apart in mid-July when Evloev was pulled from the card due to illness.
UFC 319 Main Event Betting Lines And Movement: Lerone Murphy Vs. Aaron Pico
According to BetOnline, Pico opened as a -150 betting favorite over the +130 Murphy. Those odds have shifted a but, but Pico remains the favorite at -185, while Murphy checks in as the +160 betting underdog.
UFC 319 Main Event Tale Of The Tape: Lerone Murphy Vs. Aaron Pico
Lerone Murphy
Age: 34
Height: 5’9”
Reach: 73”
Stance: Orthodox
Aaron Pico
Age: 28
Height: 5’8”
Reach: 70.5 ”
Stance: Orthodox
UFC 319 Co-Main Event Predictions And Picks: Lerone Murphy Vs. Aaron Pico
Lerone Murphy is a very good striker who manages distance well while being good at target selection, employing better-than-average footwork. Murphy’s takedown defense is 52 percent, but he does not accept being on the mat, doing his best to get back to his feet and getting the fight back to where he is at his best, which is striking.
Aaron Pico is a very talented wrestler who left the sport to pursue MMA. He signed with Bellator as a teenager in 2014 and spent his entire career with the promotion before entering free agency. As good as his wrestling skills are, Pico is unafraid to mix it up in the striking department, where he has improved a great deal since his first MMA fights. He is very well-rounded and aggressive. Don’t let the four losses on Pico’s record fool you; three of those came in his first seven fights when he was still learning the sport. His other loss was a TKO injury.
What scares me about Pico is his aggression and willingness to get into a firefight on the feet, and that is not the right approach in this fight. I also think Pico will be focused on putting on a show for the UFC and its fans, which is also dangerous against Murphy.
Pico has all the skills to win this fight, and he should win, but the pick is to go with the underdog money and a Murphy decision win.
We will have more on the UFC 319 co-main event, Murphy vs. Pico, as fight night nears, as well as live results, reactions, highlights and more for the UFC 319 pay-per-view card on fight night