Whether it’s pens, paper, or pencil cases – school supplies may seem unremarkable, but they are among the highest-grossing product categories in retail. According to a recent study, the global market volume for the Back-to-School (BTS) season alone is estimated to be around $172 billion for 2024, with a rising trend to over $230 billion by 2030.
However, the industry is not without its challenges as there is only a short window of time to deliver the products for school supplies. Manufacturers and retailers must recognize trends months in advance to determine appropriate inventory levels. For example, in addition to social media trends and compliance with ESG requirements, tariffs will undoubtedly impact the upcoming BTS season.
When pens set trends
Social media is changing the point of sale, in real-time. According to the latest study by ResearchAndMarkets, the global social commerce market is expected to grow to over $920 billion by 2025. For planning, this means that forecasting must become faster, more flexible, and more data driven.
This means that traditional sales planning is reaching its limits. Businesses are increasingly relying on predictive AI tools to better predict customer behavior and needs. With AI-powered planning models and real-time data, demand peaks can be anticipated before a favorite pen is sold out.
Sustainability pays off, even for notebooks
Sustainability is no longer just a buzzword. Regulators, investors, and consumers demand measurable ESG performance: transparent and consistent. According to the National Retail Federation (NRF), 71% of surveyed US students in 2024 prefer eco-friendly back-to-school products.
However, fragmented ESG guidelines in different countries are making reporting increasingly complex for companies. AI provides clarity here: it helps structure data, identify risks early, and efficiently map compliance. This makes sustainability not only achievable but scalable.
Tariffs change shopping timing and not just prices
Despite uncertainties in trade policy and inflationary pressure, according to a recent PwC survey, spending on back-to-school remains stable, and in some cases, we might see some increases. However, decision-making processes are shifting beneath the surface as tariffs will impact purchasing behavior.
According to the NRF, 74% of consumers will start shopping early for the 2025 BTS season out of concern about higher prices due to new tariffs. Customers are data-driven: prices are monitored in real-time, and bargains are targeted at events like Amazon Prime Days.
Time becomes a strategic variable
Tariffs not only change what ends up in the shopping cart but also when. For retailers this creates a logistical tension: those who order too late risk shortages, and those who stock up too early may end up paying more or holding excess stock.
This conundrum is not lost on Manos Raptopoulos, a Chief Revenue Officer at SAP who believes the current macroeconomic environment and trade conflict increase the volatility in global supply chains.
“Proactive risk anticipation and management of disruption when adversity manifests itself, is essential for maintaining a competitive edge,” said Raptopoulos. “Through predictive analytics and automation of processes, Business AI can help companies monitor, manage and respond to complex supply chains efficiently and in real time.”
To overcome these challenges, companies and retailers can leverage predictive procurement, and AI-powered scenario analysis and planning, and building a supply chain that can quickly respond when the tariff lever is pulled. Those who plan smartly will have the schoolyard secured and the parents’ shopping cart along with it.
Want to learn more about how AI-powered supply chains are all about meeting today’s needs and preparing for tomorrow? Check out this IDC Analyst Brief: “AI-Powered Business Suite for Supply Chain”