Around 8:10 on Wednesday night, NBA commissioner Adam Silver announced that the Dallas Mavericks selected Duke freshman Cooper Flagg with the first pick in this year’s draft. Flagg, a 6-foot-8 forward, then walked across the stage at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, N.Y., and shook Silver’s hand and gave the commissioner a hug.
The scene was a mere formality. It was assured more than a month ago when the Mavericks surprisingly won the NBA draft lottery. Dallas had just a 1.8% chance of getting the No. 1 pick, the fourth-lowest odds of any lottery winner in history.
With Flagg, the Mavericks now have one of the best prospects to enter the NBA in decades and a cornerstone to build around following the stunning trade in February of star forward Luka Doncic to the Los Angeles Lakers.
Flagg, in fact, has been touted as the No. 1 pick in this year’s draft dating back to August 2023 when he re-classified to the 2024 high school class, making him eligible for college in the 2024-25 season and the draft in 2025. He was previously a member of the high school class of 2025, meaning he would have entered college this coming fall.
Instead, Flagg, who doesn’t turn 19 until December, headed to Duke last fall after an impressive performance practicing against and training with the USA Olympics team. As the college season progressed, it became even more clear that Flagg was a shoo-in to become the top pick. He was just the fourth freshman to sweep the national player of the year awards, led the Blue Devils with 19.2 points, 7.5 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 1.4 steals and 1.4 blocks per game and helped Duke to the Final Four. Flagg’s 2.734 rating according to analyst Ken Pomeroy was the second-highest since KenPom began publishing the data in the 2010-11 season, only behind Wisconsin’s Frank Kaminsky, who had a 2.794 rating as a senior in the 2014-15 season.
Where does Flagg rank among the No. 1 picks of all-time? It’s hard to compare Flagg with other prospects considering how much the game has changed over the years, but he is among the top 10 most hyped No. 1 selections in the past 40 years. He may even be the best prospect since LeBron James entered the league in 2003, although Victor Wembanyama two years ago was also considered a can’t-miss star at the level of a Flagg.
Below, we look at eight other highly touted No. 1 picks since the draft lottery began in 1985. The list does not include other sought after No. 1 selections before then such as Elgin Baylor (1958), Oscar Robertson (1960), Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (1969), Bill Walton (1974), Magic Johnson (1979) and Ralph Sampson (1983).
1985 – Patrick Ewing
Forty years ago, the New York Knicks won the first draft lottery, which to this day is the source of unfounded conspiracies that the league wanted Ewing to go to one of the NBA’s glamour franchises. Ewing, a 7-foot center, was a three-time, first team All-American and four-time Big East Conference defensive player of the year at Georgetown and considered one of the best big man prospects of all-time dating to his days in high school outside of Boston.
During Ewing’s first season, he won the NBA’s rookie of the year and was named an All-Star, although he didn’t play in the game due to an injury. The Knicks only won 23 games that year, the worst record in the league. But starting in 1988, the franchise made the playoffs for 14 consecutive seasons, including advancing to the NBA Finals in 1994 and 1999. Ewing played 15 seasons with the Knicks and remains the franchise’s career leader in points, field goals, free throws, rebounds, steals, blocks, points, minutes and games. Although he never won a title, he is one of the most beloved Knicks of all-time and a Naismith Hall of Famer.
1992 – Shaquille O’Neal
During his three seasons at LSU, O’Neal was a dominant force, especially as a sophomore when he was named the Associated Press national player of the year after averaging 27.6 points, 14.7 rebounds and 5.0 blocks per game. As a junior, the 7-foot-1 center averaged 24.1 points, 14.0 rebounds and 5.2 blocks per game and was a first team All-American, although the Tigers lost in the second round of the NCAA tournament.
Still, O’Neal was the prize of the 1992 draft. The Orlando Magic, coming off an Eastern Conference-worst 21-61 record, selected O’Neal and saw an immediate turnaround. In his first season, O’Neal was the rookie of the year and an All-Star and led the Magic to a 41-41 mark, a 20-game improvement. O’Neal played with the Magic for four seasons and helped them advance to the 1995 Finals before he signed with the Los Angeles Lakers in July 1996. O’Neal won three consecutive titles with the Lakers from 2000 through 2002 and won another with the Miami Heat in 2006. He was inducted into the Naismith Hall of Fame in 2016 and ranks 11th in NBA history in career points, 16th in career rebounds and ninth in career blocks.
1997 – Tim Duncan
Duncan, a 6-foot-11 power forward, was projected as the No. 1 pick in the 1996 draft, but he decided to remain at Wake Forest for his senior season. During the 1996-97 season, Duncan was named the AP’s national player of the year after averaging 20.8 points, 14.7 rebounds and 3.3 blocks per game.
The San Antonio Spurs won the draft lottery after going 20-62 in the 1996-97 season, as star center David Robinson played in only six games due to back and foot injuries. With Duncan joining a healthy Robinson, the Spurs improved to 56-26 in the 1997-98 season, with Duncan winning rookie of the year and making first team All-NBA. The next season, the Spurs won their first NBA title. Duncan led the Spurs to four more championships (2003, 2005, 2007 and 2014), made first team All-NBA 10 times and won the Most Valuable Player award in 2002 and 2003. He was inducted into the Naismith Hall of Fame in 2020.
2003 – LeBron James
James was among the most highly touted high school players of all-time. During his senior year at St. Vincent-St, Mary High School, he appeared on the cover of Sports Illustrated and had several games televised on ESPN. When the Cleveland Cavaliers, his hometown team, won the draft lottery it added even more pressure on James to perform and stay away from distractions. For all the hype James received before his first NBA game, the reality has been ever better than anyone could have expected.
James was an immediate impact player, winning rookie of the year and helping revive the Cavaliers, leading them to five consecutive playoff appearances, including the 2007 Finals. During the summer of 2010, James famously signed with the Miami Heat, where he won two titles. James returned to Cleveland in 2014 and led the franchise to four consecutive Finals appearances, including winning the championship in 2016. Since 2018, James has played for the Lakers, but he remains a legend in Cleveland. He is the NBA’s all-time leading scorer and among the top five players of all-time.
2007 – Greg Oden
Oden, a 7-foot center, was considered the top prospect in the high school class of 2006 and could have been a top draft pick that year if high school players were still allowed to enter the NBA. Instead, Oden signed with Ohio State and averaged 15.7 points, 9.6 rebounds and 3.3 blocks per game and shot 61.6% from the floor in his only college season. He helped the Buckeyes advance to the NCAA tournament championship game, where they lost to Florida, a team that repeated as national champions and had three players who were selected in the top 10 of the NBA draft. Still, Oden was the best player on the court in the title game, scoring 25 points on 10 of 15 field goals, grabbing 12 rebounds and blocking four shots.
The Portland Trail Blazers selected Oden with the No. 1 pick over Kevin Durant, whom the Seattle Supersonics chose with the No. 2 pick. Although Durant was the national college player of the year and went on to became an all-time NBA great, no one at the time questioned Portland’s decision. Oden underwent surgery on his right knee in September 2007, forcing him to miss his entire rookie season. He finally made his debut in October 2008, but he only appeared in 61 games, which ended up being the most he played in a season. Oden sustained multiple other injuries and missed three more entire seasons. He finally retired from the NBA in 2014, having appeared in only 105 total games (66 starts) and averaged 8.0 points and 6.2 rebounds per game.
2012 – Anthony Davis
During high school, Davis had an eight-inch growth spurt and went from playing guard to becoming a 6-foot-10 center. By his senior season, he was the nation’s top recruit and signed with Kentucky, whose coach, John Calipari, was known for attracting the best talent. As a freshman in the 2011-12 season, Davis was the national player of the year, averaged 14.7 points, 10.4 rebounds and 4.7 blocks per game and led the Wildcats to the NCAA title.
The New Orleans Hornets (now known as the Pelicans) selected Davis with the No. 1 pick in the 2012 draft. In seven seasons, Davis mad six All-Star teams and four first team All-NBA teams, but the Pelicans only advanced to the playoffs three times and won one postseason series. In July 2019, New Orleans traded Davis to the Los Angeles Lakers in a blockbuster deal. Davis helped the Lakers win the title in 2020 and then battled injuries, but he appeared in 76 games and made second team All-NBA during the 2023-24 season. The Lakers traded Davis to the Mavericks in February as part of the Doncic trade. He will now play alongside Flagg and look to get the Mavericks back among the league’s best teams.
2019 – Zion Williamson
Williamson was part of an elite Duke recruiting class, although it wasn’t clear that he would be the star. The Blue Devils also signed RJ Barrett and Cam Reddish, the No. 1 and No. 2 players in the high school class of 2018, according to the 247Sports Composite. Williamson was No. 5. However, Williamson stood out early in the 2018-19 season and was the unanimous national player of the year after averaging 22.6 points and 8.9 rebounds per game and shooting 68% from the floor. Duke entered the NCAA tournament as the overall No. 1 seed but the Blue Devils lost in the Elite Eight by one point.
At 6-foot-6, Williamson was shorter than the other elite prospects of the past few decades, but scouts were enamored with his athleticism and explosiveness. So far, he has failed to live up the lofty expectations due to injuries and questions about his fitness. Williamson missed the entire 2021-22 season due to a right foot injury and played in 30 or fewer games in three other seasons, including last year when he appeared in 30 games. Still, Williamson has put up good numbers (24.7 points, 6.6 rebounds and 4.3 assists per game and 58.9% from the floor) and made two All-Star teams. He also doesn’t turn 25 until next month. For now, though, Williamson needs to prove he can remain healthy and committed to became a franchise cornerstone.
2023 – Victor Wembanyama
Unlike the other players on this list, Wembanyama didn’t play for a high school or college in the U.S. Still, he was well known to NBA scouts and diehard fans. At 7-foot-3, Wembanyama was among the tallest elite prospects in history. What made him even more special was his shooting, ballhandling and defensive prowess, which he showed playing in professional basketball leagues since he was 15 years old.
The Spurs selected Wembanyama, making him the franchise’s third No. 1 overall pick, following Robinson (1987) and Duncan (1997). Both of those players are in the Hall of Fame and won a Most Valuable Player award, and it’s looking like Wembanyama will join them with those accolades. In his first season, Wembanyama was the rookie of the year, averaged 21.4 points, 10.6 rebounds and 3.6 blocks per game and finished second in the defensive player of the year voting. This past season, he was even better, averaging 24.3 points, 11.0 rebounds and 3.8 blocks per game and dominating again on the defensive end. But he appeared in only 46 games due to injuries, making him ineligible for defensive player of the year or All-NBA, which are reserved for players who appear in at least 65 games. Wembanyama, who doesn’t turn 22 until January, is already among the league’s best players and should only improve over the next few seasons and put the Spurs back in contention for the title.