In this time of business uncertainty, leaders are getting more confident in their executive teams, according to the latest Leadership Confidence Index from Russell Reynolds Associates. Every six months, the management consulting firm polls business leaders worldwide about their leadership teams, combining the results into an index on a 100-point scale. For the first half of 2025, that index is 62.6, up 1.4 points since the end of 2024—the largest rise in leadership confidence since Russell Reynolds started this measurement in 2021.
The index measures confidence in executive teams in terms of their capability, behavior and issue management. And for the first half of 2025, behavior has been a key factor. Nearly three in five leaders reported that their executive leadership team effectively works together as a team and that they effectively embrace change. More than half—56% say that the team models the right cultures and behaviors. And if there was any time for team members to pull together, it’s now. About 83% of leaders have downgraded their view of the near-term economic outlook since the beginning of this year, and Russell Reynolds said these results show that amid economic uncertainty, leadership teams are becoming more unified.
Across the board, leaders are the most confident in their executives’ capabilities. Well over half—58%—say they believe these leaders have what it takes to lead the organization successfully. Nearly three-quarters say that the leaders have a firm grasp of the competitive dynamics in their industry, while 63% say they have access to good information to help with decision-making.
The true tests of leadership during this period are likely just getting started, however. Many new tariffs are not yet solidified or enforced, and larger economic impacts widely predicted by experts haven’t filtered into fiscal figures. It remains to be seen if business leaders will continue to support each other as they adapt to more change and the climate becomes increasingly challenging.
One of the biggest challenges is President Donald Trump’s unpredictable and sudden changes to trade and import policies. I talked to Franck Lheureux, CEO of procurement management software company Ivalua, about what he sees from the front lines of companies dealing with these issues. An excerpt from our conversation is later in this newsletter.
ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Though experts have been warning for months that Trump’s tariffs could undo economic progress to reverse inflation, that hasn’t yet come through in the numbers. May’s consumer price index showed price increases of 2.4% compared to a year ago, and an increase of just 0.1% since April. It was lower than economists’ estimates, which were 2.5% year-over-year inflation, and 0.2% month-over-month. The Federal Reserve Board of Governors meets later this week, and although both Trump and Vice President JD Vance have essentially demanded that the board use this information to lower interest rates, the vast majority of interest rate traders—99.8%, according to CME FedWatch—predict they will not budge.
Forbes senior contributor Christian Weller writes that while the CPI report looks positive, there are troubling areas that could foreshadow larger problems in the coming months. Prescription drugs are seeing higher price increases—up 0.6% in May alone, after a 0.4% increase in April. Prices ticking upward could show the beginning of a trend of these items getting much more expensive, especially since many prescription drugs are imported. Prices for hospital services have increased 3.9% over the last 12 months, and that may keep going up as Republican lawmakers cut federal funds that many hospitals rely on. Insurance rates are also way up, Weller writes, with motor vehicle insurance up 7% in the last 12 months.
The tariffs are looming on the horizon—though Trump announced a deal with China last week that imposes a 55% tariff on Chinese imports, as well as relaxes controls on rare earth minerals and magnets crucial to developing advanced technology. On Thursday night, Trump said his administration was negotiating tariffs with 15 countries, and would be sending “take it or leave it” letters to all trading partners in the coming weeks with the U.S.’s final tariff offer. A new Quinnipiac University poll last week showed 57% of registered voters disapprove of the way Trump handles trade, writes Forbes senior contributor Stuart Anderson.
Trump’s final tariff declaration caused stock prices to drop on Friday morning, and they fell more sharply as the day continued as Israel attacked Iran, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The nations continued strikes with no signs of a truce in the near future. However, the major indexes opened up Monday morning, with the Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 each gaining more than 1% by late morning.
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
Walmart has a new AI-powered shopping assistant that will be able to do much more than just help customers select products that fit their needs. Forbes contributor Ron Schmelzer writes that Sparky—the assistant personified by Walmart’s trademark yellow smiley face—now can do what many AI-powered shopping assistants do: suggest products, summarize reviews and answer a few questions—like which sports teams are playing. In coming months, Walmart plans to add features that go several steps beyond basic: reordering and scheduling services, a feature that can take a photo or video and give a sort of “how-to” guide for tasks—like “How do I fix this dripping faucet?” or “How can I make lunch out of these products?” It will essentially become a shopping agent, Schmelzer writes, turning shopping “from a search problem into a service experience.” If you’re planning a cookout, it will present you with grills, check the weather, suggest menus and schedule for the items to be delivered.
It makes sense for Walmart to add these capabilities. According to the retailer’s surveys, nearly seven in 10 customers say quick solutions are the top reason they’d use AI in retail, and 27% now trust AI for shopping advice. Nearly half would be OK with AI reordering household staples, but the same amount said they’re unlikely to ever fully hand over control of their shopping to a bot. Sparky combines these two desires: Automatic reordering of commonly used items, advice on others. And with such a wealth of advice and information available on Walmart’s app, it may also inspire people to begin their shopping on Walmart’s app instead of bypassing it for recommendations provided by an AI-powered search engine.
BIG DEALS
Japan’s Nippon Steel is buying U.S. Steel after all, but in a uniquely structured deal that gives the White House outsized control over what the company does—and which may become a template for future deals involving foreign investors. On Friday, Trump signed an executive order approving the $14.9 billion deal after the companies signed a national security agreement with the U.S. government.
The agreement gives the U.S. government a “golden share” in the company. It hadn’t been fully disclosed as of Monday morning, but Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick revealed in social media posts over the weekend the “golden share” will give the White House the ability to insert itself into the company’s dealings, the AP reported. Under these terms, the president must give consent to relocate U.S. Steel’s Pittsburgh headquarters, change the company’s name, transfer production or jobs outside of the U.S., close factories, reincorporate the business overseas, or reduce or delay $14 billion in planned investments. The president can also name one of the corporate board’s independent directors, and has veto power over the other two.
The New York Times reports that this deal is a new use of the “golden share” principle of U.S. government interest in private companies. In the past, the government has taken “golden shares” of companies under financial duress, or when they play a significant role in the U.S. economy, but very sparingly. During the Great Recession, the government acquired a large stake in General Motors as part of a bailout—which it completely sold off by 2013—and took control of mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
Stephen Heifetz, a partner at the law firm Wilson Sonsini Goodrich & Rosati, told the Times this deal could change the way foreign companies look at deal-making in the U.S. “It is going to cause people to spend more time thinking about the obstacles to investing in the U.S. market,” he told the newspaper.
TOMORROW’S TRENDS
Procurement has been in the spotlight since the height of the Covid-19 pandemic, when supply chain stresses worldwide made it difficult for companies to obtain the goods they needed at the price and on the schedule they demanded. President Trump’s tariffs and ensuing trade wars have quickly made procurement much more challenging. I spoke with Franck Lheureux, CEO of procurement management software provider Ivalua, about what they see from the front lines on how companies are navigating the unpredictable changes in trade policy. Lheureux became CEO of Ivalua in January, after seven years with the company as a general manager and chief revenue officer, so he’s been dealing with supply chain upheaval for years.
This conversation has been edited for length, clarity and continuity.
What is Ivalua’s strategy right now?
Lheureux: It’s not just about the tariffs or the new world that is being rearchitected on a daily basis. Or challenges of supply chain, inflation or exchange rates. Any spend decision has a positive capacity to react for any companies.
Who’s at the core? Procurement people. When they make decisions to source here, to relocate production facilities from one of their suppliers, to change contracts, to be agile in the way they’re going to reshape their supply chain upstream and downstream, they become a core of any company decision. What do we do with that? We have to empower our customers to be agile and way more reactive. You cannot react without data that tells you where you stand and [where] from a scenario planning standpoint you should go.
It happened during Covid, which was the first place under my time in procurement where procurement and supply chain [were] totally put under chaos: What to do? How to replenish my goods? Where to buy services? What to do when people are locked down, working from home? What can I supply? How [can I] serve my customers’ demand and orders?
We found through technology business continuity, business resilience, new ways to adapt, adopting changing practices like connecting customers and quality audits from a distance. Things people didn’t realize [were] doable, but are. Tracking by the hour where my goods are, from a longshore shipment from a China hub, or waiting in Los Angeles. We could, by the minute, determine where supply chains are going to be broken, where is your inventory and when is the delivery and lead time? Those were largely unexplored facets of procurement and supply chain. Technology has helped to reinvent, and through that we build the set for the company’s resilience.
And then comes the gen AI journey, that is also meant to be the next frontier of helping humans to perform better decisions. Finding ways to run your business that we never thought of. Benefiting from machine learning capabilities, and bringing efficiencies into the way we used to run the business. This is the next frontier for Ivalua and the next frontier for the business we serve.
From where you sit—both as CEO now and as the chief revenue officer previously—what are some of the bigger challenges you’ve seen that companies working with Ivalua are facing?
It’s an echo to the tariff wars. A lot of companies we’re dealing with don’t have a true understanding of their upstream supply chain, meaning [they have] varying dependencies. They are in a contract with their [Tier One] supplier. It’s easy to maneuver. But the supplier of a supplier? Or the supplier of a supplier of a supplier? Where are they located? Will the tariff serve the entire supplier chain? This is this gray zone area that most companies don’t monitor well or don’t have access to. A 360-degree view across your entire upstream supply chain or supplier network is a critical capability.
Second, [they need to have an] understanding of the critical components of their bill of materials, of what makes the true net cost of what you purchase, in order to anticipate, scenario plan the tariff impact, the inflation impact, the shortages.
Third, what is your agility to substitute suppliers? One is falling apart, or one is receiving too big of a tariff impact. Can I substitute for a short or long term from an offshore to a nearshore eventually?
These are the kind of considerations that organizations, to prevent disruption and bring resiliency, have to face. I’m not talking about regulation and risk management. Risk is not just operational risk. What are my long-term exposures because of my supplier ecosystem? How should I rethink where my plants are based? It’s not just about relocating your plants. It’s about [whether] your near-shore supplier ecosystem will follow your plant relocation.
This is ecosystem thinking in a very short term, because those decisions are being forced to be taken in a very short term. They used to be taken care of three to five years on the horizon. Now it’s a matter of orders to force those decisions.
Never think you’re alone. Every decision of staffing a new plant, a new warehouse or [distribution center] is not just focusing on your own constraints or cashflow. It’s focusing on the right talents and suppliers. Will my dependency on offshoring Chinese or European offset the benefits of my relocation decision eventually?
Thinking in the ecosystem with a very short term window to perform decisions is where I sense our customers are struggling the most.
What advice would you give to other CEOs?
Stand strong to your values. This era is full of anxiety, and can be highly stressful for our customers, for us as CEOs driving companies, for our employees. So keep calm and stand strong and committed to your own values. Better times will come. We are as CEOs, a resource to make the world a greater place to be. Use that power wisely.
COMINGS + GOINGS
- Marketing data and analytics firm Kantar appointed Jeff Greenspoon as CEO for the Americas, effective August 4. Greenspoon joins the company from dentsu, where he worked as chief global client officer, and he will succeed Wayne Levings.
- Clinical research organization Fortrea has selected Anshul Thakral as its next CEO, effective August 4. Thakral will succeed interim CEO Peter M. Neupert, and previously worked in the same role at Launch Therapeutics, a company he co-founded.
- Manufacturing firm BIC hired Rob Versloot for the CEO role, effective September 15. Versloot previously worked as CEO of Hero Group, and he will succeed Gonzalve Bich, who is the third generation of the Bich family to serve as CEO. Forbes CEO spoke with Bich about this coming transition back in February.
Send us C-suite transition news at forbescsuite@forbes.com
STRATEGIES + ADVICE
Business success starts at the top, where you as a leader define your “high concepts”: purpose, uniqueness, values and culture. Here are examples of how to take those deceptively simple concepts and translate them into what sets your business apart.
If your growth is slowing down or stopping and you can’t figure out why, consider asking ChatGPT for advice. Here are five prompts for the chatbot to help you identify your bottlenecks and obstacles—and that can help you find ways for your company to advance and improve.
QUIZ
Last week, the 2025 Forbes Global 2000 ranked the world’s top companies based on their revenue, profit, assets and market value, equally weighted. Which company was No. 1?
A. Berkshire Hathaway
B. Amazon
C. JPMorganChase
D. Saudi Aramco
See if you got it right here.