This week my colleague John Morales went viral for going on the air to caution that cuts to the National Weather Service have made him less confident in his ability to warn the public about hurricanes. Miami-based Morales, who was trained at Cornell and Johns Hopkins University, is a colleague whom I have interacted with many times as a member and during my tenure as President of the American Meteorological Society. He is simply one of the most respected broadcast meteorologists within our field. His forward stance is not surprising, but meteorologists have been a hot topic in recent weeks. Let’s talk about the rise of meteorologists.
I don’t mean to make that sound like some zombie apocalypse. Meteorologists have been around for decades. They work in the broadcast industry, National Weather Service and other government agencies, private companies, state organizations, and many other institutions. My sixth-grade science project shaped my life. After building weather instruments and taking observations in my hometown of Canton, Georgia, I knew that becoming a meteorologist was my destiny. For me, I was more interested in the “hows and whys” of the field rather than forecasting or being on television. Most of my career has been spent at NASA and academia. Though my profession is far broader than broadcasters, that’s what most people associate with the word “meteorologist.” In fact, I often receive the question, “What channel are you on?”
A broadcast meteorologist is likely the only scientist the general public encounters on a daily basis. I will say more about that later. Morales is passionate about the field of meteorology and people. Last year while Hurricane Milton approached the Tampa Bay region, he broke into tears during coverage for WTVJ. He later explained in Mother Jones why he got so emotional. He said, “With climate-driven extremes putting us in a place that we haven’t been before, it’s very difficult to stay cool, calm, and collected.” Over his 40 years, Morales has risen to the occasion to warn the public, particularly South Florida, about major weather threats and is particularly known for his masterful risk communication related to hurricanes. Just this week, it was announced that he is a recipient of the National Center for Science Education Friend of the Planet Award.
A recent slate of early retirements and cuts to NOAA and NWS cuts have created challenges at one of the most dangerous weather times of the year. Numerous media outlets have reported that NWS offices are understaffed and that critical services like weather balloon launches, which provide input for the weather prediction models, have been reduced. In some cases, the NWS has moved employees from one part of the country to places with critical needs. We are in the midst of peak severe weather season, and tornado activity has been deadly. At least 19 people lost their lives in London, Kentucky in a storm earlier this Spring. Additionally, the Atlantic hurricane season started on June 1st and is projected to feature above-normal activity.
Last week, meteorologist participated in a 100-hour, non-partisan marathon to share the value of weather research and federal resources. Like police or fire services, many colleagues on the livestream articulated that weather information, warnings, and life-saving guidance should be an accessible public good. The Forecast Watch blog noted earlier this year, “For starters, the NWS costs the average tax-paying American $3-4 per year. That’s about the cost of one cup of coffee. As of now, the NWS has a budget of around $1.38 billion, with around $102.1 billion returned in estimated public value. That’s a whopping 73:1 return on investment.”
All living former directors of the National Weather Service recently penned an open letter about the impact of cuts and the value of the agency. These colleagues, all of whom I know well, served Presidents from both sides of the aisle. They made the obvious points about staff reductions and the value of forecasts. However, they also pointed out the importance of radar technicians and other staff that keep our forecasts and warnings coming. Elbert “Joe” Friday also touched on the importance of NOAA and other parts of the federal system that enable the work of NWS with data, research, and advanced technology.
The two leading U.S. weather organizations, the American Meteorological Society and the National Weather Association have offered services, resources and support during these dynamic times. The American Geophysical Union has also been actively engaged on behalf of the weather, water, and climate enterprise.
Earlier this week CNN reported that the NWS had been authorized to hire over 120 personnel to “stabilize” operations. That certainly helps, but it is far below NWS numbers prior to January, which means reduced hours, staff shortages, and limited services are still likely. Morales went on to say, “Did you know that Central and South Florida National Weather Service offices are currently basically 20 to 40 percent understaffed? From Tampa to Key West, including the Miami office, 20 to 40 percent understaffed.” Florida is one region most likely to be hit by a strong hurricane.
Morales is a scientist and a scholar, so I cringe when people in the broadcast profession are called “weatherman.” For my female colleagues, the term “weather girl” is even more offensive. These days most people delivering your forecasts are scientists with rigorous training in calculus, fluid dynamics, thermodynamics, atmospheric physics, and the other meteorological coursework. I emphasize this point because as meteorologists find their voices on all of our behalf, it is important to understand that they are well-trained professionals who understand the science, engage in risk communication, and care about the protection of life and property.
As a tornadic storm or Category 5 hurricane approaches, I want to hear from trusted meteorologists not an app or AI.