Royals Patience In Lefty Starter Kris Bubic Finally Paying Off

Even as the Kansas City Royals’ long rebuilding effort was finally starting to pay dividends, one nagging deficiency remained. They were persistently unsuccessful in developing homegrown starting pitching. Sure, they made the playoffs last season, but their rotation was fronted by Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha, a pair of preseason free agency adds, and Cole Ragans, acquired via trade from the Texas Rangers the previous July at the deadline.

This year, after a long wait, the Royals have a new ace, and he is in fact a Kansas City draftee. Lefty Kris Bubic was the 40th overall pick in the 2018 draft, and finally seems to be putting it all together at the major league level. At one time, Bubic was a fairly high-end prospect. I ranked him as the #44 pitching prospect in the game following the 2019 season based on his 185/42 K/BB ratio in 149 1/3 A-ball innings at age 21. (My minor league evaluation system measures statistical performance relative to league and level, and is meant more than anything else to create a master follow list from which more traditional evaluation methods can take place.)

Bubic has pitched only 236 2/3 minor league innings since being drafted. There wasn’t much resistance above him on a rebuilding big league club, but he wasn’t ready when he first arrived, plain and simple. He went 10-28, 4.85, from 2020-23 with an ordinary at best 289/146 K/BB ratio in 325 innings. And then his elbow blew out in April 2023, necessitating Tommy John surgery.

The club wisely kept Bubic around through his first arbitration season as he rehabbed, and a strong showing after his his return from rehab late in 2024 earned him a second, at a salary of $3 million. His brilliant performance thus far in 2025 makes it a cinch that he’ll be re-upped for 2026 as well, at a significant raise, unless the club decides to lock him up long-term for big years and dollars.

Some pitchers don’t make it back from Tommy John. The surgery has consistently gotten more effective, but it’s far from a cure-all. Every now and then, however, a pitcher gets an even better ligament the second time around. That seems to be the case for Bubic. Before 2024, he never had a higher average fastball velocity than 91.9 mph, in 2022. Last year, he averaged 93.0 mph, and this year, he’s at 92.4 mph.

But velocity is not the be all and end all. It comes down to making pitches, and building an effective arsenal, especially for a starting pitcher being depended upon for innings bulk.

I break down pitching performance into three main components – missing bats, minimizing walks and managing contact. On top of it all, starters must add durability to the equation. By any measure, Bubic has been excellent this season. While his BB rate is in the league average range, his K rate is over a standard deviation higher than average and his contact management performance is exceptional.

Now one might say, Kauffman Stadium is massive and pitcher-friendly, so of course Bubic is putting up numbers. To which I respond, sure – but my batted ball-based pitcher evaluation method doesn’t dock him all that much for that reason.

His overall average exit speed allowed of 86.7 mph is over a full standard deviation lower than league average. Both his 87.4 mph fly ball and 90.4 mph line drive average exit speeds are over TWO standard deviations lower than league average. His batted ball profile doesn’t show a go-to pop up or grounder tendency (his average launch angle allowed of 14.1 degrees is also in the league average range), so it’s that utter throttling of contact authority that is driving an 81 Adjusted Contact Score that suggests he’ll be squarely in the AL Contact Manager of the Year race this season.

Add it all up, and his “Tru” ERA- of 70 isn’t all that much worse than his 35 ERA- or 59 FIP-.

But believe it or not, things get even more exciting when you break things down on a pitch-by-pitch basis. While the four-seam fastball is the game’s least effective pitch, great pitchers, like Zack Wheeler, tend to have great ones. My annual pitch grades (given to starters with 135 or more innings) grade out qualifying pitcher offerings based on their bat-missing and contact management performance relative to league average. Yes, there’s a long way to go, but Bubic’s fastball gets an “A++” thus far in 2025. Its 15.2% pitch-specific whiff rate is over two standard deviations better than league average, and its 84 Adjusted Contact Score is nearly two better. The changeup is arguably the game’s best pitch, and Bubic’s has been comparably great, getting an “A+” grade thus far. His 46 pitch-specific Adjusted Contact Score is nearly two standard deviations better than league average, and his 20.2% whiff rate is also measurably better.

His slider/sweeper combination rounds out his primary repertoire. It’s been a below average pitch to date, getting a “C+” grade, with an average range 97 Adjusted Contact Score and a measurably below average 12.5% whiff rate. Can a pitcher without an average breaking ball be a truly elite hurler? We may be about to find out. Honestly, he might need his two best pitches to remain in such rarified air to qualify as a true alpha ace.

Obviously, durability is going to be a key here. Bubic pitched 129 1/3 innings in 2022 – and hasn’t pitched that many innings since, total. How many frames can the Royals realistically expect him to throw this season? Again, we’re about to find out. He’s averaged over six innings per start to date, putting him on track for about a 200-inning workload. If he can maintain a semblance of his effectiveness to date over that number of frames, he’s an inner-circle Cy Young candidate. And if Lugo and Ragans successfully overcome minor injury concerns and get back to 2024 performance levels, watch out. The Royals will again be primed for a playoff spot, and will be a tough out if they get there.