Choosing high school courses can feel high-stakes—and for good reason. According to a survey from the National Association for College Admission Counseling, nearly 87% of colleges believe curriculum strength to be of “moderate” or “considerable” importance for admissions decisions, compared to 56% for the infamous college essay and just 30% for SAT and ACT scores.
The course selection pressure may be especially intense when it comes to advanced math. In another recent survey, 74% of admissions counselors identified AP Calculus as a highly valuable math course, whereas only 37%—just half that percentage—placed AP Statistics in the same tier.
In this context, college-bound teens and their parents may feel that it’s a no-brainer to sign up for AP Calculus. But is it?
What if their high school doesn’t offer AP Calculus? What if the student’s interests lie closer to statistics or data science? Admissions counselor surveys aside, what do the data really show about the predicted effects of choosing calculus or other math courses, such as statistics?
At the Thomas B. Fordham Institute, which I lead, we wondered about these very questions. To answer them, our own Adam Tyner teamed up with Matt Giani, an associate professor at the University of Texas at Austin, and his graduate assistant, Franchesca Lyra. Together, they investigated trends in high school calculus and statistics, as well as the long-term effects of taking AP Calculus or AP Statistics. Their work is detailed in our newest study, Calculus or Statistics: Does It Matter?
What should high schoolers and their families know about our findings? The answer depends on the student’s interests and goals. Consider:
1. Where does the student hope to go to college?
If the answer is a highly selective school, like MIT or Stanford, then AP Calculus has the edge over other math courses. Among otherwise similar AP Statistics and AP Calculus AB students, those in calculus are 6 percentage points more likely to enroll in a selective institution.
However, if the answer is a less selective college, then AP Calculus and AP Statistics are both strong options. All AP math students were more likely to enroll in and complete college than students who never took an AP math, and there were no statistically significant differences between students in AP calculus versus statistics. Because colleges also care a lot about GPAs (93% of colleges say they’re of “moderate” or “considerable” importance), students applying to less selective colleges may be best served by selecting the AP math course most aligned with their strengths.
2. What does the student plan to study?
If the answer is a STEM field, then AP Calculus once again offers the advantage. Compared to their peers in AP Statistics, AP Calculus students are 11 percentage points more likely to pursue any STEM major and 10 percentage points more likely to complete a STEM bachelor’s degree.
If the student isn’t planning on a STEM major, then once again, any AP math can be a good choice. For students who want to explore data science, for example, AP Statistics may be better preparation for their future studies. It may also better equip students to interpret a wide range of phenomena beyond school, from sports to business analytics to articles in Forbes.
3. What career path interests the student?
For students aiming for careers in manufacturing, health care, and oil and gas, AP Calculus may be the best fit, since students who take the course are more likely to go into these fields.
For those interested in finance and insurance, however, AP Statistics predicts a greater likelihood of entering these careers. It’s also worth noting that rigorous data science courses can equip students with some of the most sought-afterskills in other fields.
If future earnings are a top concern, students should prioritize taking any AP math course over a non-AP option. Ten years after high school graduation, there was no statistically significant difference in earnings for AP calculus versus statistics students, but all AP math-takers outearned their peers by $10,000 or more annually.
Ultimately, the best-fit math course is going to be the one that helps individual students pursue their interests and goals. May each student’s choices add up to long-term success!