Tesla is set to report first-quarter earnings on April 22. Will the quarterly report be another negative headline for the EV maker and its controversial CEO Elon Musk? Or, will Tesla surprise investors with outstanding cost performance or innovative tech advances? Decide now with this Tesla stock earnings release prep: a review of the company’s recent performance, key data points to watch and consensus expectations.
Tesla’s Recent Performance In 2025
Tesla stock is down 38% in 2025. The stock price slide began after a disappointing fourth-quarter earnings report in January. Several negative headlines have since aggravated the decline, including:
- In March, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration recalled nearly every Cybertruck on the road. At issue is the Cybertruck’s cantrail assembly, a piece of stainless steel between the windshield and roof. The part can detach while driving.
- Protests at Tesla showrooms have erupted in response to Musk’s role within the U.S. government. Musk is an advisor to the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), tasked with cutting government spending.
- Tesla dealerships and vehicles have increasingly been targets of vandalism. CNN has suggested the attacks could raise insurance rates for the EV brand.
- Tesla unit deliveries fell 13% in the first quarter of 2025 versus the prior-year period. Tesla’s quarterly delivery report cites a production issue but offers no other explanation for the decline.
Key Metrics To Watch For In Tesla’s Upcoming Earnings
Recall and protest headlines indicate a tough first quarter for Tesla, which was confirmed by the company’s latest production and delivery report. Still, investors are waiting for the official word on quarterly revenue, EPS, margins, energy business growth, progress on new products and AI initiatives and performance in China.
Vehicle Deliveries and Production Numbers
Tesla reported global first-quarter vehicle production and deliveries on April 2. The company produced 362,615 vehicles and delivered 336,681 in the first three months of 2025. Relative to the prior-year period, production was down 16%, and deliveries were down 13%. The numbers, which were below analyst expectations, describe Tesla’s worst quarter in three years.
Things could change, but Tesla is not on course for a stellar 2025. For more promising picks for this year, see: best stocks of 2025.
Revenue and Earnings Per Share (EPS)
Tesla’s annual revenue growth has slowed dramatically since 2021 when sales topped the previous year by 71%. 2024 sales only increased 1% from 2023. Musk and leaders from GM and Ford have noted waning EV demand in recent years.
Tesla’s disappointing first-quarter production and delivery numbers put investors on notice that this will be another tough revenue quarter. The final quarterly revenue and EPS data will hinge on vehicle pricing, energy and services revenue and overall cost efficiency.
Margins and Profitability
Tesla has been working to reduce its average cost of goods sold per vehicle. Between the first quarter of 2023 and the fourth quarter of 2024, Tesla lowered its average per-vehicle COGS from above $38,000 to below $35,000.
Investors will want to see further cost progress. Lower costs support profitability and give Tesla more leeway for sales price reductions, a tactic the company has used to protect market share amid fierce competition.
Energy Business Performance
Energy is Tesla’s smallest but fastest-growing revenue center. The energy business produced 10% of the company’s total revenue in 2024, totaling $10 billion. This was up 67% from 2023. The gain almost offset the dollar-value decline in Tesla’s automotive sales in the same period.
Cybertruck and New Product Updates
New vehicle models and updates support Tesla’s growth plans. The latest major product initiative was the 2023 Cybertruck launch. In 2025, Tesla plans to produce a cheaper car model and launch test markets for its robotaxi services. Investors are awaiting updates on both projects.
The Cybertruck launch has been disappointing relative to Musk’s early predictions. He had projected to sell 250,000 to 500,000 electric trucks annually. According to Kelley Blue Book, quoted by Benzinga, Tesla sold fewer than 40,000 Cybertrucks in 2024. Worse, third-party data from Cox Automotive indicates that Cybertruck sales have declined in 2025 relative to last year.
AI Initiatives
Tesla uses AI in its business and products. AI enables manufacturing cost efficiencies and underpins Tesla’s full self-driving (FSD) technology. The evolution of unsupervised FSD will be critical for the company’s robotaxi initiative.
Chinese Market Performance
China is Tesla’s second-largest market after the U.S., accounting for an estimated 36% of sales. Tesla often does not break out sales figures by country, but the China Passenger Car Association tracks and reports vehicle unit sales by manufacturer. According to the China Internet Information Center, Tesla sold 137,200 units in the first quarter, up about 3% from the prior year.
Tesla has been facing heavy competition from Chinese EV and hybrid manufacturer BYD. BYD recently launched a lower-priced EV to compete with the Tesla Model 3, long a top seller in China.
Macroeconomic Factors Impacting Tesla
Macroeconomic factors affecting Tesla include:
- Global tariffs. Tesla has largely localized manufacturing, which provides some protection from a global trade war. However, the company is exposed to tariffs in its supply chain and on certain models. Last week, Tesla stopped taking orders from China on two U.S.-made models, the Model S and Model X.
- Government incentives. Governments globally encourage EV adoption with tax credits and other incentives. The U.S. currently offers a $7,500 EV tax credit, which President Trump may eliminate. Musk has said ending the U.S. EV tax credit would benefit Tesla because it would cause bigger problems for competing U.S. automakers.
- Consumer confidence. Demand for new cars fluctuates with consumer confidence. The Expectations Index by The Conference Board think tank shows the prevailing consumer outlook is increasingly negative. The index measures consumers’ short-term expectations for income, business and the job market. Its March value was 65.2, the lowest point in 12 years and nearly 15 points below the threshold of 80 that signals recession.
- Inflation. Inflation raises Tesla’s input costs and increases auto loan costs for consumers. Both outcomes can stifle vehicle sales.
Expert And Market Sentiment
According to Yahoo Finance, analysts expect Tesla to report first-quarter revenue of $21.81 billion and EPS of $0.43 per share. These numbers compare to revenue of $21.3 billion and EPS of $0.45 in last year’s first quarter.
Tesla has missed revenue and earnings expectations in five of the last seven quarters.
Tesla’s stock price has improved slightly since April 9, when Trump paused many reciprocal tariffs. However, the S&P 500 large-cap index showed the same trend, indicating general sentiment improvement rather than a Tesla-specific change.
Bottom Line
Tesla is flirting with a crisis as EV demand falters and Musk’s cost-cutting actions within the U.S. government spark anger among consumers. The upcoming first-quarter earnings release will likely show flat-to-negative performance. Longer-term, Tesla could realize growth from its promised cheaper car model, unsupervised FSD and robotaxis—so investors this quarter should watch closely for signs of progress on these initiatives.