Topline
Florida will hold a special election Tuesday to replace former GOP Reps. Matt Gaetz and Mike Waltz—two closely watched contests widely viewed as a test of Trump’s agenda so far as the Democratic candidates have campaigned heavily against the government funding cuts spearheaded by Elon Musk, and fundraised more than their Trump-backed opponents.
Key Facts
In the Sixth Congressional District, which covers Daytona Beach and stretches into central Florida, Republican state Sen. Randy Fine is competing against Democrat Josh Weil, an Orlando school teacher, to fill the seat vacated by Waltz when he was appointed Trump’s national security advisor.
Republican Jimmy Patronis, Florida’s chief financial officer, squares off against Democrat Gay Valimont, a gun control activist who ran for the seat in November’s general election, to replace Gaetz, who resigned when he was Trump’s initial pick for attorney general, in the First Congressional District bordering Alabama on the Atlantic coast.
Republicans are heavily favored to win both seats—Trump won the First District by 37 points and the Sixth by 30 points in November—but a fundraising lag, particularly in the Sixth District previously represented by Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, has raised concerns among some Republicans.
Weil has outraised Fine by more than $9 million between Jan. 9 and March 12, while Valimont raised an upward of $6 million, five times more than Patronis.
An internal survey conducted earlier this month by Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio also showed Weil beating Fine by three points, with 10% of voters undecided, according to an unnamed source cited by Politico, while a recent survey by St. Pete Polls for Florida Politics found Fine winning by just four points.
The Democrats in both races have campaigned heavily against Musk’s efforts to slash the size of the federal budget and workforce: Weil recently told The New York Times “the success of this campaign is a resounding message to our current administration and unelected oligarch Elon Musk of the people’s feelings regarding the dismantling of essential systems the American people rely on to survive.”
When Are Florida’s Two Congressional Special Election Results Expected?
Polls close at 7 p.m. ET in the Sixth District and 8 p.m. ET in the First District.
Contra
Some Republicans have dismissed the fundraising imbalance as a longshot attempt by Democrats to dent the GOP’s slim 218-213 majority in Congress at a time when the party is in the wilderness after a damaging 2024 election that’s led to acknowledgment its messaging strategy has deterred voters. “If the Republicans were behind in the House — as the Democrats are now — and the national party decided that they were going to go after those seats, you would see the same kind of money come in,” Flagler County GOP Chair Perry Mitrano told Politico. Turnout among Democrats versus Republicans is also typically higher in special elections.
What Has Trump Said About The Candidates?
Trump participated in tele-town halls last week for both Fine and Patronis and has repeatedly urged voters to back them on Truth Social. He called Fine “a highly successful, Harvard educated businessman, and greatly respected State Legislator” on Truth Social Saturday and Patronis “a wonderful friend to me, and to MAGA.” Trump’s decision to pull Rep. Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y., as his United Nations ambassador last week so that she could remain in Congress was another indicator of Republicans’ anxiety. Trump told reporters of the decision “we have a few elections going on,” referring to the contests in Florida, and that he “didn’t even want to take a chance” of a close contest for Stefanik’s seat. Commenting on the fundraising disparity in the Weil-Fine race, Trump said “you never know what happens in a case like that.”
What Does Early Voting Show?
Turnout among Republicans is nine points ahead of Democratic turnout in the Sixth District and 19 in the First District as of Sunday, according to a New York Times tracker of county election data.
Further Reading
Democrats raise millions for Florida special elections in Trump territory (NBC News)
A Special Election That Was Supposed to Be a Snoozer Is Suddenly Buzzing (The New York Times)
‘A lot closer than people expected’: GOP worries, Dem cash dominate tense Florida special election (Politico)