Over the last two weeks, I’ve been taking a look at the Opening Day true-talent rankings of the 30 MLB clubs on a division-by-division basis. While the rankings are based on actual 2024 batted-ball data, off-season player movement and potential impact of 2025 rookies will be addressed. Last week, we began with the AL East, AL Central and AL West. This week, it was NL East, NL Central and now the NL West.
1 – Los Angeles Dodgers – ”Tru” Talent Record = 97-65 – Offensive Rating = 116.4 (2nd), Pitching Rating = 99.3 (16th), Defensive Rating = 96.1 (7th) IN: LHP Blake Snell, LF Michael Conforto, RHP Roki Sasaki, RHP Kirby Yates, LHP Tanner Scott; OUT: RHP Walker Buehler, 2B Gavin Lux, LF Jason Heyward, RHP Jack Flaherty, RHP Ryan Brasier
Mega-team looks to defend their World Series championship. As things turned out, the Dodgers weren’t quite the Goliath they appeared to be last season. This was largely due to injuries on the pitching side – only Gavin Stone (now out with a shoulder injury) and Tyler Glasnow exceeded the modest total of 100 innings pitched. As only this club can, they went out signed arguably the two best arms on the market, Snell and Sasaki, to address the issue. Oh, and Shohei Ohtani will be back on the mound sometime in the first half. The bullpen has been greatly enhanced by the signings of Scott and Yates. Their potent offense returns virtually untouched and should lead their onslaught.
2 – San Diego Padres – ”Tru” Talent Record = 91-71 – Offensive Rating = 108.0 (8th), Pitching Rating = 94.5 (7th), Defensive Rating = 101.1 (17th) IN: LHP Kyle Hart, RHP Nick Pivetta, LF Jason Heyward, 1B Connor Joe; OUT: C Kyle Higashioka, LHP Martin Perez, 1B Donovan Solano, SS Ha-Seong Kim, LHP Tanner Scott, LF Jurickson Profar
These guys had a real shot to take down the Dodgers in the postseason, but let them get away. On paper, the Padres just might have been the better team at the time. But ownership group issues following the death of Peter Seidler rendered them largely a bystander this offseason, and pitching anchors Dylan Cease and Michael King Jr. are still being bandied about in trade talks. An ultra-talented band of star players remain, but overall team depth is greatly watered down. Rotation depth is being tested by the losses of Joe Musgrove (Tommy John surgery) and Matt Waldron (strained oblique).
3 – Arizona Diamondbacks – ”Tru” Talent Record = 80-82 – Offensive Rating = 109.6 (3rd), Pitching Rating = 108.4 (28th), Defensive Rating = 102.8 (23rd) IN: 1B Josh Naylor, RHP Corbin Burnes, RHP Kendall Graveman; OUT: SS Jeff Newman, 1B Christian Walker, DH Joc Pederson, RHP Slade Cecconi, DH Josh Bell, RHP Paul Sewald
Arizona’s offense simply does not credit for how good it was last season. 2B Ketel Marte was a problem to opposing hurlers, and CF Corbin Carroll bounced back strong in the second half after an injury-plagued beginning. With a healthy Carroll from the get-go, NL pitchers need to watch out. They addressed their pitching deficiencies in the best way possible, by going out and getting ace Burnes in the free agent market. He arguably brings a better risk/reward combo than Dodger signees Snell and Sasaki. The club also needs a return to form from Zac Gallen and a healthy Merrill Kelly. There are very promising arms at Triple-A, including righties Yilber Diaz and Cristian Mena.
4 – San Francisco Giants – ”Tru” Talent Record = 79-83 – Offensive Rating = 98.7 (15th), Pitching Rating = 98.8 (15th), Defensive Rating = 102.6 (22nd) IN: SS Willy Adames, RHP Justin Verlander; OUT: LHP Blake Snell, LF Michael Conforto, 2B Thairo Estrada, LHP Taylor Rogers
The Giants remain a somewhat peculiar high-floor/modest-ceiling outfit with no glaring strengths or weaknesses. Adames is the big add here, and while he is durable and reliable, it remains to be seen how his extreme launch angle/pull approach will age. 700 plate appearances of a .230 average, 20 homers and sub-.300 OBP is at least possible. Prospect Bryce Eldridge is the future. He emits some Aaron Judge-like vibes, though that might be asking a bit much. Trading out Snell for Verlander seems like a losing proposition, but one cannot rule out league average-range quality and comparable innings bulk to Snell from the grizzled veteran.
5 – Colorado Rockies – ”Tru” Talent Record = 60-102 – Offensive Rating = 90.8 (26th), Pitching Rating = 119.1 (30th), Defensive Rating = 100.4 (15th) IN: UT Kyle Farmer, 2B Thairo Estrada, LHP Scott Alexander; OUT: LF Jake Cave, RHP Peter Lambert, RHP Cal Quantrill
Going to try to be positive here. Let’s get the negative out of the way first – it’s inexcusable to be unable to build an acceptable offense at mile-high altitude, and the Rockies just can’t seem to do it. That said, 1B Michael Toglia is a guy, altitude or not. Look for 30+ homers from him this year. Kris Bryant has looked decent this spring, but I’m not buying. As for the pitching, look for some incremental improvement. Vets German Marquez and Antonio Senzatela are healthy and in the rotation, and Ryan Feltner is at least somewhat intriguing. There are finally some high upside arms on the way, like Chase Dollander and Sean Sullivan.