Race day at the 150th Kentucky Derby is in the old, fundamental ways not unlike the previous 149: Jitters in the stands and in the paddock, the attempts at some quiet race-readying, some sweat, a lot of hope. All sets of connections will be hoping most mightily for their horse to present his best self to the track and the populace this afternoon. None of them doing that will be more fervent in that hope than the connections surrounding Fierceness, easily the most talented horse of the twenty in today’s field, and one of the most unpredictable.
We have been grappling for weeks with the fact that it is a largely slow field for the Derby, with some few exceptions, namely, those sought out last weekend by the Churchill oddsmakers as the top favorites. In descending order of probability to win, Fierceness, Sierra Leone, and then the second tier, Catching Freedom, Just A Touch, and Forever Young. It doesn’t make the betting any easier that the field’s slowness requires so much bottom-fishing, what with four horses at 50-1 in the morning line and four at 30-1, or almost half the field. It just means that, judiciously and assiduously handicapped, there can be some really well-paying exotics.
But before we get into the minutia of how Dornoch’s break will affect Sierra Leone, here’s the refresher on the field:
Post Position, Trainer, Jockey, Morning Line
1. Dornoch, Danny Gargan, Luis Saez, 20-1
2. Sierra Leone, Chad Brown, Tyler Gaffalione, 3-1
3. Mystik Dan, Kenny McPeek, Brian Hernandez Jr., 20-1
4. Catching Freedom, Brad Cox, Flavien Prat, 8-1
5. Catalytic, Saffie Joseph Jr., Jose Ortiz, 30-1
6. Just Steel, D. Wayne Lukas, Keith Asmussen, 20-1
7. Honor Marie, Whit Beckman, Ben Curtis, 20-1
8. Just a Touch, Brad Cox, Florent Geroux, 10-1
9. T O Password, Daisuke Takayanagi, Kazushi Kimura, 30-1
10. Forever Young, Yoshito Yahagi, Ryusei Sakai, 10-1
11. Track Phantom, Steve Asmussen, Joel Rosario, 20-1
12. West Saratoga, Larry Demeritte, Jesus Castanon, 50-1
13. Endlessly, Michael McCarthy, Umberto Rispoli, 30-1
14. Domestic Product, Chad Brown, Irad Ortiz Jr., 30-1
15. Grand Mo the First, Victor Barboza Jr., Emisael Jaramillo, 50-1
16. Fierceness, Todd Pletcher, John Velazquez, 5-2
17. Stronghold, Phil D’Amato, Antonio Fresu, 20-1
18. Resilience, Bill Mott, Junior Alvarado, 20-1
19. Society Man, Danny Gargan, Frankie Dettori, 50-1
20.Epic Ride, John Ennis, Adam Beschizza, 50-1
(Source: Churchill Downs)