Sunday marks the final slate of regular season NBA games in the 2023-24 campaign. This season in particular is especially interesting, as both conferences face numerous scenarios that will unfold over the course of the day which will have a significant impact on final seeding for the postseason.
At the top of the Western Conference, three teams are currently tied with the best record at 56-25 with one game remaining for each. The Oklahoma City Thunder, Denver Nuggets and Minnesota Timberwolves will finish first, second and third in some order based on how Sunday’s games unfold.
But it’s not so simple to project what that final order will look like. There are multiple tiebreakers at play and alternate outcomes based on how each team’s final game plays out. The Thunder, Timberwolves and Nuggets all play at the exact same time on Sunday afternoon which is another interesting wrinkle.
- Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks
- Minnesota Timberwolves vs Phoenix Suns
- Denver Nuggets vs Memphis Grizzlies
The Thunder has the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Nuggets. But Minnesota has the head-to-head tiebreaker advantage over both OKC and Denver. However, if this ends in a three-way tie, the Thunder will win the tiebreaker based on cumulative record against the other two teams in the trio.
At this point, each of the three teams have a chance of finishing at the top spot in the Western Conference, but none control their own destiny. There could be some manipulation on Sunday if certain teams want to have a better shot of finishing somewhere specific in that top three, but there’s a handful of ways this could unfold.
Let’s take a look at the scenarios for each team to earn the No. 1 seed in the West, most of which are in OKC’s favor.
Thunder:
- Win vs Mavericks + Nuggets Win
- Win vs Mavericks + Timberwolves Lose
- Win vs Mavericks + Timberwolves & Nuggets Win
- Lose vs Mavericks + Timberwolves & Nuggets Lose
Timberwolves:
- Win vs Suns + Nuggets or Thunder Lose
Nuggets:
- Win vs Grizzlies + Thunder & Timberwolves Lose
There’s six different outcomes in the three games that will take place on Sunday with the ability to alter standings, four of which result in the Thunder finishing at the top of the Western Conference .
If Oklahoma City takes care of business and beats the the Mavericks — who will be playing without Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving — the fate of the Thunder’s final seeding will be in the hands of the Nuggets. If OKC wins on Sunday, the only way a different team would be the No. 1 seed would be if the Nuggets lose, which would give the Timberwolves that top spot.
The most interesting part of Sunday’s slate of game will be uncovering each teams’ intentions. In theory, if the Nuggets prefer playing the Thunder in a potential round two matchup rather than the Timberwolves, they could be inclined to lose their season finale in effort to manipulate the scenarios. Even then, there’s no guarantee that’s how it would ultimately happen and intentionally losing would deteriorate the small chance that both Oklahoma City and Minnesota lose, which would give Denver the top seed.
For the Thunder, finding a way to be on the other side of the bracket from Denver would be ideal, as the Nuggets would be a tough second-round matchup. But again, there’s no way to fully manipulate the standings with all three teams playing at the same time on Sunday.
Sunday afternoon’s NBA slate will be must-watch television.