This time last year, the Oklahoma City Thunder owned four selections in the first-round of the 2024 NBA Draft. That stash of first rounders has been strategically manipulated over the past nine months, as the Thunder traded two of the four away.
Sending out that pair of draft picks in separate trades was an effort to extend the window of significant draft capital by acquiring picks in the future. Given Oklahoma City likely couldn’t draft four players and clear the roster space to bring them on, this was a strategic play to essentially swap near-term picks for selections well in the future. Furthermore, the language in these trades will result in the Thunder trading the two worst of their picks this summer — which will likely be in the very late parts of the first-round — meaning the acquired selections in the future have a good chance of being higher quality.
Given Oklahoma City owns the best two of the four still at this point, what that essentially means based on how the season is shaping up is that the Thunder have the Houston Rockets’ selection (top-four protected) and a pick from the Utah Jazz (top-10 protected).
With just three weeks remaining in the regular season, it’s becoming very clear where these picks will likely fall. And with the current landscape of the NBA standings, it appears the Thunder will ultimately have just one first-round pick in the 2024 NBA Draft.
With the ninth-worst record in the NBA, it’s extremely likely that the Jazz pick falls in the top 10 and doesn’t convey to the Thunder this year. For this not to be the case, one of two unlikely things would have to occur. Either Utah would have to close the season strong and finish the regular season with a better record than the Atlanta Hawks (currently 2.5 games difference), or the Jazz would need to have bad luck on the night of the draft lottery and have two teams jump them and fall to No. 11 overall.
As of today, Utah’s pick has nearly a 97% chance to land in the top 10 and stay with the Jazz, meaning that pick the Thunder owns would push to next year in the 2025 NBA Draft, once again top-10 protected.
As such, the one first-round pick the Thunder will likely have in June’s draft from the Rockets via the Russell Westbrook swap for Chris Paul. The Rockets are currently surging and have very much established themselves as a team with a shot to make the postseason. If Houston is able to make the play-in and ultimately the true playoffs, there’s a chance the pick they convey to OKC isn’t in the lottery. However the odds would suggest that the Thunder would get a lottery pick from the Rockets given they’d have to not only continue to make a push for the play-in but also win two games to earn a spot in the playoffs.
Over the course of nine months, Oklahoma City went from four potential first-round picks to likely just one. This should work in the Thunder’s favor, especially since the team is constructed in a way that four rookies next season isn’t feasible and long-term draft capital to maintain success is a priority.