The 2024 congressional elections begin in earnest next week when five states will hold their primary elections. But more sitting congresswomen than ever have decided not to add their names to the ballot for re-election. While women’s congressional departures in 2024 are not – at least for now – disproportionate to men’s, their persistent underrepresentation in Congress makes preserving existing numbers especially important.
According to the Center for American Women and Politics (CAWP) at Rutgers University, a record 14 (11D, 3R) congresswomen have already announced that they are not running for re-election to their current seats in the U.S. House or Senate in the 2024 cycle. This overall count includes both women who are retiring and those who are running for other offices.
Distinguishing between reasons for departure, only women’s retirements are at an historic high. As of February 20, nine women – including six Democrats and three Republicans – have announced their retirements from Congress with no intention for running for other public offices. They include seven members of the U.S. House – Anna Eshoo (D-CA), Kay Granger (R-TX), Debbie Lesko (R-AZ), Kathy Manning (D-NC), Grace Napolitano (D-CA), Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-WA), and Jennifer Wexton (D-VA) – and two women senators – LaPhonza Butler (D-CA) and Debbie Stabenow (D-MI).
While retirements guarantee net losses in women’s congressional representation unless new women are elected to fill the gap, some departing women may only be moving chambers. Four current women in the U.S. House are running for the U.S. Senate, including two women – Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-DE) and Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) – who are currently favored in their contests. U.S. Representatives Barbara Lee (D-CA) and Katie Porter (D-CA) are competing for the same U.S. Senate seat in California, ensuring that at least one of these women incumbents will not be in Congress in 2025. U.S. Representative Abigail Spanberger (D-VA) will also be out of Congress in 2025, when she will be campaigning instead for governor of Virginia.
A high number of departures among congresswomen begs questions of both cause and effect. Is there something about the current political context that is motivating women to leave public office? New findings on the harassment and abuse faced by political leaders, as well as the continual gridlock in Congress, suggest there are myriad factors that could fuel attrition. And distinctly negative experiences among women could make their retention even less likely than men’s. But the congressional data for 2024 does not yet indicate a uniquely gendered difference in either the cause or commonality of congressional departures.
At present, incumbent congresswomen are not departing their current offices – whether to retire or to run for other offices – at higher rates than their male counterparts. As of late February, women account or 28% of members that are not running for re-election, including 28% of retirements and 28% bids for other offices; women are 28.2% of current members of Congress. This data demonstrates that incumbent men and women are departing Congress at similar rates in the 2024 cycle, and that a likely reason why the raw number of women’s departures is higher than previous cycles is because more women currently serve in Congress than ever before. Moreover, the individual circumstances of each woman departing Congress this year are different – inclusive of age, health, and political calculations – but few of their stories or public statements signal a distinctly gendered impetus for leaving.
From now through November, data points in the equation used to predict representational outcomes for women in Congress will be in continual flux. Guaranteed departures are net negatives that will grow with any incumbent losses at the primary or general election stage. Together, that net loss will need to be filled by non-incumbent gains – new women successful in defeating incumbents or obtaining open seats – to at least maintain women’s current level of congressional representation. Next week’s congressional primaries offer some of the first insights into the potential pick-ups for women. In California, for example, Assemblywoman Luz Rivas (D) and Angélica Dueñas (D) are the only Democratic candidates running for the open seat in the Democratic 29th district. And in Texas, another woman state legislator – State Representative Julie Johnson (D) – has been noted as among the leading contenders in a crowded Democratic primary in a Democrat-leaning 32nd congressional district.
Even when proportional to the departures of their male counterparts, women’s congressional departures evoke a sense of precariousness of gender progress at the highest levels of political office, at least when progress is measured by numbers alone. Despite gains in recent cycles, women still hold under one-third of congressional seats. For them, any net loss in or even maintaining the current level of representation stalls progress toward gender parity. That progress may well continue in 2023, but the departures of current congresswomen create a deficit to fill in the coming months.