The Super Bowl is set in Las Vegas. The Kansas City Chiefs will tackle the San Francisco 49ers at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas Feb. 11 after the Chiefs roughed up the Ravens 17-10 and the 49ers rallied from an early 14-0 hole and 24-7 halftime deficit to take down the Detroit Lions 34-31 in the conference championship games.
Big Game 2024 Super Bowl will set records with 38 states now offering legal sports betting. By the end of this week, the sportsbooks will be posting hundreds of prop bets including most popular player props for fans to bet on while adding more engagement and excitement to the Super Bowl.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
- Betting Line: 49ers -1.5 and game total 47.5 points
- Feb. 11 – 6:30 p.m. ET on CBS and streamed on Paramount+
FanDuel Sportsbooks opened the 49ers a -2.5 point favorite. But the odds to win the super bowl have quickly adjusted in the opening hour to 49ers -1.5 across the board at the leading online sportsbooks.
Following this year’s divisional playoff games, the 49ers were projected as a -2.5 point favorite over the Chiefs. Now San Francisco is a slight favorite as the two top teams head to Las Vegas.
The Chiefs have now been to the Super Bowl four of the past five years with two wins including last years thrilling 38-35 win over the Philadelphia in a game we projected over the total high-scoring Super Bowl.
The Chiefs beat the 49ers 31-20 in Super Bowl LIV following the 2019 season. Kansas City erased a 20-10 fourth quarter deficit with three touchdowns in the final seven minutes with Patrick Mahomes earning the Super Bowl MVP award.
Many Super Bowl picks, props, betting tips and trends will be provided for Super Bowl LVIII, and here are some to note ahead of kickoff as you scour stats and information you can bet on.
The Vegas Stats & Information Network research team uses four key statistical categories in outlining straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) outcomes in the Super Bowl.
- Rushing yards
Teams that rush for more yards in the Super Bowl are 42-15 straight up (SU) and 40-14-3 against the spread, ATS (74%). Teams that outrushed their opponents in this year’s playoffs are 9-3 SU and 10-2 ATS after the Lions outrushed the 49ers 182-155 and lost 34-31 as a 7-point underdog.
The 49ers defense allowed both the Packers (136) and Lions (182) big rushing yards for a combined average of 5.58 yards per rush in their two playoff wins. The Chiefs defense allowed the Bills to rush 182 yards but held both the Dolphins and Ravens under 85 yards rushing in their three playoff wins.
Including the playoffs, the 49ers average 139 rushing yards per game at 4.8 yards per rush and the Chiefs 109 YPG and 4.4 YPR. The 49ers defense has allowed 92 rushing yards per game (4.2 YPR) but not nearly as strong in the playoffs while the Chiefs defense has allowed 115 rushing YPG at 4.5 YPR.
Total defense the Chiefs have allowed 292 yards per game at 4.7 yards per play including the playoffs to the 49ers 305 YPG at 5.0 YPPL – both top-7 in the league.
- Passing yards per attempt
Teams that average more passing yards per attempt in the NFL title game are 44-13 SU and 37-17-3 ATS (68.5%). The Eagles lost last year’s Super Bowl despite a stronger game from QB Jalen Hurts with 304 yards passing at 8.0 yards per attempt. San Francisco QB Brock Purdy is averaging nearly 9.0 yards per pass in 16 games this season, including playoffs, when the conditions were not wet. He struggled terribly with 4 INT’s vs. the Ravens Christmas Day, and was not sharp until the last game-winning TD drive in the 49ers 24-21 divisional round playoff win over the Packers. He finished 20-of-31 for 267 yards (8.6 YPPL) with 1 TD and 1 INT in the 34-31 win over the Lions in the NFC conference championship game. Patrick Mahomes was 30-of-39 for 241 yards (6.2) and 1 TD in the Chiefs 17-10 win in the AFC championship game. In his last six postseason games, Mahomes has 11 TD’s and zero INTs while completing 70% of his passes with a 7.0 yards-per-attempt average.
- Turnovers
The team that had fewer turnovers are 38-7 SU and 36-8-1 ATS (82%) in the 45 Super Bowls where there was a turnover advantage for either team. The Eagles had just one turnover in last year’s Super Bowl, but it was a costly one by QB Hurts as he fumbled and it was returned 36 yards for a Chiefs touchdown. There have been five playoffs games this year with a 2-0 turnover differential and the teams with zero TO’s are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS. The Ravens had 3 TO’s and lost to the Chiefs (zero).
- Time of possession
Teams that have the time of possession advantage are 41-16 SU and 39-15-3 ATS (72%) in the history of the Super Bowl. The Eagles lost last year despite more than 35 minutes of ball possession to the Chiefs 24+ minutes. The Chiefs had a dominating 37 minutes to 23 minutes time of possession edge over the Ravens just one week after a being on the short end of a 37-23 minutes TOP agains the Bills, but still managed to win. The 49ers two playoff wins have been very close in time of possession for both teams.
For this season including the playoffs, the Chiefs have averaged 22.3 points per game and 49ers 28.6. The Chiefs have allowed 17.1 points per game and 49ers 17.7 – both top-3 in the league.
In games against playoff teams this season, the 49ers are 7-3 SU and 3-6-1 ATS with a yards differential of +707. The Chiefs are 4-4 SU/ATS with a 3-0 SU/ATS run through the playoffs and a yards differential of +115. San Francisco is 14-5 SU and 9-10 ATS including the playoffs this season and Kansas City is 14-6 SU and 12-8 ATS. The Chiefs and 49ers played seven common opponents this season including playoffs – Packers, Lions, Vikings, Eagles, Ravens, Bengals and Jaguars. The 49ers went 4-3 SU and 2-5 ATS while the Chiefs were 4-3 SU/ATS.
Opening odds on FanDuel to be Super Bowl LVIII Most Valuable Player include the two quarterbacks at the top.
- KC Patrick Mahomes (+130) and SF Brock Purdy (+210)
- SF RB Christian McCaffrey (+490) and KC RB Isiah Pacheco (+4000)
- KC TE Travis Kelce (+2100) and SF TE George Kittle (+7500)
- SF WR Deebo Samuel (+4100), SF WR Brandon Aiyuk (+5000) & KC WR Rashee Rice (+6000)
We’ll chip-in more Chiefs-49ers Super Bowl coverage ahead including player props, which went 6-0 in the divisional round this year with prop bets more popular than ever and adding to a record Super Bowl handle.
You can bet on it.