With the suspension of Ron DeSantis’ presidential campaign, the Republican primary election is now down to two. Nikki Haley remains as the sole challenger to the overwhelming frontrunner and former president Donald Trump. As Haley looks to close the gap with Trump, she must also mend the divide between what GOP primary voters want and perceptions, including those informed by her gender and racial identities, of what she will provide. Those mismatches have been mined by her presidential primary opponents to prove that she is unfit for the job.
The latest CBS News/YouGov poll offers key insights into the challenges Haley faces with Republican primary voters nationally. First, there are multiple sites where Haley’s message misaligns with GOP voters’ priorities. For example, just 36% of Republicans say it’s important that the next president represent a new generation, despite Haley’s oft-used line that America needs “a new generation of conservative leadership” to get things done. Similarly, while Haley has worked hard to associate Trump with “chaos,” Republicans are far less likely than Democrats to value calm; two-thirds of Republicans surveyed by CBS News/YouGov, compared to 90% of Democrats, say it is important that the next president is calm.
In other areas, Haley’s message and presentation seek to meet Republican voter demands in spite of her gender and racial identities. When it comes to explicit valuation of diversity in the presidency, just 10% of Republicans say it is important to them that the next president be a woman and 11% value electing someone who represents a racial/ethnic minority group. These data points are unsurprising, especially based on robust findings showing Republicans are less likely to problematize identity-based disparities in representation and power. And they align with another finding from the recent CBS News/YouGov survey, where 69% of Republicans say efforts to promote racial diversity and racial equality have gone too far.
Recognition of these beliefs are evident in Haley’s campaign strategy, which has not sought to claim her gender or race among her merits for the presidency. And while Haley’s comments denying that America has ever been – or is today – a racist country have elicited criticism from the broader public and media, they align with the beliefs of many Republican primary voters. Even more, Trump’s attempts to further otherize Haley on the basis of her race – referencing her by her birth name Nimarata and even circulating claims about her ineligibility to be president – tap into both the backlash to diversity promotion and the racial resentment that fueled his support in both 2016 and 2020.
Republicans are also fearful of masculinity’s demise. According to the Public Religion Research Institute’s (PRRI) 2023 American Values Survey, 72% of Republicans believe that society has become too soft and feminine, up from 53% in 2011. This fear – stoked by Trump since 2016 – only heightens skepticism that a woman is fit for presidency. While history has shown how women can successfully prove masculine credentials, the deep roots of gender stereotypes make it harder for them. The gendered terrain of presidential politics puts the onus on women to counter expectations that presume feminine weakness and gives male opponents greater opportunity to foster voters’ doubts.
In the last week alone, Trump has repeatedly said of Haley, “She’s not tough enough,” adding in New Hampshire on Friday, “She’s not going to be able to deal with President Xi. She’s not going to be able to deal with Putin.” Though less overt, Ron DeSantis tried a similar tactic when referring repeatedly to Haley as “pale pastels” in the last debate, seemingly trying to use hues historically matched with women to imply weakness rooted in Haley’s femininity.
These tactics align with voter demand. When asked about the traits they value in the next president, 94% of Republican voters say it is important to them that the next president be someone who shows toughness, compared to 76% who value empathy in their next chief executive. These traits are gendered, with toughness – at least in the form associated with force and aggression – more often aligned with masculinity and empathy with femininity.
Haley appears well aware of the masculine terrain on which presidential campaigns – and especially recent Republican primaries – have been waged, and she’s bought in. From her repeated praise of Great Britain’s “Iron Lady” Margaret Thatcher to her symbolic translation of her high heels into weapons of brute force, Haley has worked to prove her masculine credentials and challenge any concerns that being a woman makes her less tough or any less qualified to be president. But Donald Trump’s success among Republican voters to date has relied on his strategy of positioning himself as the most masculine, and relatedly toughest, candidate. Proving his masculinity has meant emasculating men and women opponents alike, but Trump’s work is made easier when running against women who enter masculinity contests at a stereotypical disadvantage.
In this narrowed Republican primary contest, Haley’s gender and race are not the highest hurdles to her success. Trump’s popularity, only boosted by departures and endorsements from DeSantis and Vivek Ramaswamy, is the dominant factor that is likely to yield Haley’s demise. But gender and race are certainly at play in the GOP primary, and Haley’s own identities have influenced strategies of her and her opponents. Upon DeSantis’ departure this weekend, Haley told voters, “It’s now one fella and one lady left.” It’s true, and Trump will make sure Republican primary voters know it.