As China and the United States continue to seek economic advantages, one over the other, Japan has greatly complicated Beijing’s political-economic calculations. Tokyo’s huge increase in defense spending and its decision to allow its armed forces more latitude to maneuver steepen both Beijing’s military and its economic challenges and at an especially difficult time for China’s leadership.
Japan assiduously claims to continue adherence to the pacifist constitution it adopted in 1945 at the end of the Second World War. It has, however, decided to make some radical reinterpretations. According to The U.S. Naval Institute, Japan has increased its defense spending every year for the past twelve and in the last year increased military outlays by a whopping 16% to the equivalent of $56 billion.
These outlays are fall far short of China’s military budget, which, according to China’s Defense Ministry verges on the equivalent of $300 billion, much less the United States, which according to the budget of the United States stands at over $850 billion. Japan’s figure is nonetheless substantive, and if indications from the government in Tokyo are correct, just the start of large increases for the next few years. It is certainly enough to capture Beijing’s attention, not the least because it is clearly aimed at Chinese ambitions. In the words of Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, “[W]e hope to contribute to defend a free and open international order based in the rule of law and to achieve peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region.”
Japan’s Defense Ministry highlights four general changes each of which must stand out in Beijing’s calculation. First is a clear commitment for the Japanese armed forces to work with allies to take on more offensive roles. Second is the decision to deploy long-range cruise missiles that can hit targets in North Korea. Such a response is to be expected given the provocative nature of North Korea’s missile deployment and testing, but it cannot escape Beijing’s notice that those arms can also hit targets in China. The third significant change is Tokyo’s decision to permit Japan a greater ability to export lethal weapons, including among them F-15 fighter jets and fighter jet engines made in Japan under American license as well as surface to air Patriot guided missiles, also made in Japan under U.S. license. There is even talk of Japan sending such missiles to Ukraine. Finally, there is Japan’s recent agreement with the United Kingdom and Italy to develop the next generation jet fighter. In the words of U.S. Ambassador to Japan Rohm Emmanuel, “The scope, scale, and speed of Japan’s security reforms have been unprecedented.”
Most directly of concern within the Forbidden City is no doubt the 2024 Japanese budget’s $5.2 billion equivalent allocation for air defense missiles to protect Japan’s southwestern islands in case, the budget document makes clear, of conflict between China and Taiwan. Especially since Taiwan was once a Japanese colony, this particular interest must resonate especially in Beijing and sound as close to a direct threat as is diplomatically possible.
Beijing has already complained about Tokyo’s plans, but otherwise there is little it can do diplomatically. Still, Japan’s moves have greatly complicated Beijing’s plans. The only answer of substance Beijing has is to expand still more than was already planned China’s own military capabilities. It no doubt will. But this response comes at an especially difficult time for Beijing.
China’s economy demands close attention and can ill afford pouring still more resources into the country’s army and navy. The collapse of the still important property development sector cries out for more support to avoid financial and hence economic disaster. So, too, does the huge and sometimes paralyzing overhang of debt among local governments. With exports in decline and the economy slowing from its once breakneck pace of growth, Beijing needs all the financial and economic resources at its disposal to restart growth at an acceptable pace and re-orient its economy away from the huge dependence on exports on which it once based its growth and now makes China too vulnerable to developments in Europe and North America. Still greater defense demands will only make this essential job more difficult.