The market is likely to rally into the January 15th time frame. Here is how the month of January looks from three different viewpoints:
All Months: Up 59.1% of the time for an average gain of 0.84%
Month in election years: Up 44.1% of the time for an average change of -0.4%
Year ending in 3: 76.9% for a 2.2% gain
Both of the prior conditions: Up 66.7% for an average change of 1.1 %.
IBM is highly rated in the Cycles Research screens. Relative strength turned up six months ago. The monthly graph suggests that this may be the start of a multi-year period of outperformance. Both the weekly and the monthly price cycles have turned up. The share price could reach $190 based upon the breakout in the weekly graph.
IBM Weekly Graph
IBM Monthly Graph
Automatic Data Processing has risen from August 1st to December 31st about 80% of the time since 1980…except for 2023. Weakness in this time period is unusual. In the few years in which the stock fell in this time interval, price was especially week in the following months. January has been the weakest month for the share price. The weekly and the monthly cycles point down. The stock is projected to fall by 5% or more by the end of the month.
Automatic Data Processing Graph
Automatic Data Processing Monthly Histogram