If you believe Florida State deserved a spot in the four-team College Football Playoff, then you probably believe something just as silly: That the coming of a 12-team format will smash even the hint of controversy over who should and shouldn’t play for future national championships.
It won’t.
It will accelerate the whining.
Since the final CFP rankings of the top 25 teams in the 133-member NCAA Division I Football Bowl Subdivision will decide those dozen teams starting in 2024, the moaning combined with the groaning is only a season away for those who will finish 13th, 14th and likely 15th through 20th.
Oh, and for those beyond.
That’s especially true since the big boys of college football are about to see their postseason jump from generating millions to billions. More specficially, when the 12-team format first surfaced as reality in June 2021, the USA Today estimated such an expansion would increase the average annual value of the event “from about $600 million to more than $2 billion.”
Acccording to the paper, that projection was provided “by a firm specializing in college and professional sports rights valuations.”
According to common sense, this whole playoff thing in college football is about to get nastier.
Let’s go back to the future.
With the 12-team CFP, the six highest-ranked conference champions in the final rankings of the selection committee will earn automatic bids, and the top four teams overall will get a first-round bye to the quarterfinals. Then the remaining six highest-ranked teams will fill out the field.
Take the 2023 final CFP rankings, for instance.
If the 12-man playoff were active this season, No. 1 Michigan, No. 2. Washington, No. 3 Texas and No. 4 Alabama would have opening bye weeks. Then they would face the winners of each of these games:
No. 12 Liberty at No. 5 Florida State.
No. 11 Ole Miss at No. 6 Georgia.
No. 10 Penn State at No. 7 Ohio State.
No. 9 Missouri at No. 8 Oregon.
Now get this: The No. 12 seed would have gone to an Oklahoma team with a third-place finish in the Big 12, but Liberty earned that spot over Oklahoma since the Flames are the sixth highest-ranked conference champion in the final CFP rankings.
Confused already?
Just wait, and then prepare for more screaming.
If the 12-man playoffs existed this season, No. 13 LSU, No. 14 Arizona, No. 15 Louisville and No. 16 Notre Dame wouldn’t slide quietly into lesser bowls away from the huge bucks. I’m guessing at least one of them — if not all — would say more than a little to plead their case for inclusion in the Dandy Dozen.
For verification, with only the Fabulous Four these days, Florida State is livid over its fifth-place slotting Sunday by the CFP selection committee since the Seminoles were undefeated with 13 victories, which included the ACC championship. But they also are offensively challenged without injured quarterback Jordan Travis, and committee members have said consistently they sought to choose the four best teams instead of the four most deserving teams.
Florida State isn’t better than Michigan, Washington, Texas, Alabama or even No. 6 Georgia.
As for the latter, the Bulldogs are fifth in the nation in total offensive yards to Florida State’s sixth, and they are 16th in defensive yards allowed to Florida State’s 24th. Georgia also is the two-time defending national champions whose 29-game winning streak was barely snapped by Alabama during a 27-24 loss Saturday in the SEC Championship Game.
Even so, Florida State officials still fumed.
Not even the 17-year-old proposal from the late Mike Leach would end this type of griping that began among the CFP excluded with the start of the playoff system in 2014. That was back when Leach coached Texas Tech, and he told the world the big boys of college football should resemble the NCAA basketball tournament by expanding to at least a 64-team field.
All that would do is create anger from those in the CFP rankings finishing 65th, 66th and likely 67th through 72nd.
Yep, and slightly beyond.
The solution for CFP selection folks?
Keep the earplugs handy.