Topline
The U.S. Energy Department reportedly became the second government agency Sunday to conclude the coronavirus probably leaked from a lab rather than jumping from animals to humans naturally, a âlow confidenceâ conclusion that lends more attention to a belief that was once consideredâand by some, still isâto be little more than a fringe theory.
Timeline
cluster of cases of a mysterious respiratory disease were reported in the Chinese city of Wuhan, the first traces of a virus that would kill millions of people worldwide in the worst pandemic in decades.
Aone of the first high-profile politicians to tout the theory that the coronavirus originated in a lab setting, either as an artificially created virus or as a natural virus that accidentally leaked out, an idea that broke with the predominant theory that the virus circulated in bats and was naturally transferred from animals to humans through a food market in Wuhan (Cotton acknowledged at the time he didnât have evidence the virus emerged from a lab).
Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) becomesan open letter condemning the âconspiracy theories suggesting that COVID-19 does not have a natural originâ; this letter is later scrutinized, as one of its signers, Peter Daszak, is the head of EcoHealth Alliance, a group that has does work in China at the Wuhan Institute of Virology, which some saw as a conflict of interest.
A group of scientists signrefutes Trumpâs claim, citing a study that found the virusâ mutations are âconsistent with a jump of a species from an animal to a human.â
Then-President Donald Trump, who frequently refers to Covid-19 as the âChina virus,â says âa lot of people are lookingâ into the possibility of a lab leak, and says the theory âseems to make senseâ; Dr. Anthony Fauci, then the governmentâs leading infectious disease expert,fact sheet stating the U.S. government believes that some researchers at the Wuhan Institute of Virologyâa biolab whose research into bat viruses had drawn scrutinyâbecame sick in the fall of 2019, shortly before the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic; in May, it is reported that three researchers were hospitalized before the first coronavirus case was reported.
In the final days of Trumpâs presidency, the State Department publishes asays it is unable to discern its origins, but calls the possibility that the virus escaped from a lab in Wuhan âextremely unlikelyââthough many observers questioned whether China gave the team enough access to reach a firm conclusion, and the new Biden Administration expressed âdeep concernsâ about the report.
A team from the World Health Organization investigating the source of Covid-19Nature reveals a close relative of SARS-CoV-2âthe virus that causes Covid-19âwas found in bats in Thailand, lending credibility to the theory that the virus evolved naturally and was not manipulated in a laboratory.
A paper in the journalopen letter in the journal Science, saying that âwe must take hypotheses about both natural and laboratory spillovers seriously until we have sufficient data,â and arguing the lab leak possibility hasnât been thoroughly investigated.
A group of scientists publish anorders an intelligence review of the two predominant Covid-19 origin theories.
President Joe Bidensays âthe most likely origin is from an animal species to a human but I keep an absolutely open mind that there may be other origins,â adding, âit could have been a lab leak.â
Fauci, who up until this point has been steadfast that Covid-19 evolved through natural means,months-long contentious debate over whether federal agencies funded âgain-of-functionâ research in China to modify viruses to study their evolutionary growth paths, suggesting (with no direct evidence) the coronavirus might have been created in a lab rather than merely leaking from one; Fauci denied the research method was used, and the National Institutes of Health later said the viruses that were researched were âgenetically far distantâ from SARS-CoV-2.
Fauci and Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) spar during a Senate hearing, part of adoes not determine whether Covid-19 emerged from a lab or through natural origins.
The intelligence review ordered by Bidenpublished, stating that China most likely did not develop the virus as a biological weapon, and that most IC analysts have determined with âlow confidenceâ the virus was not genetically engineered; it finds that âtwo hypotheses are plausible: natural exposure to an infected animal and a laboratory-associated incident.â
A declassified Intelligence Community assessment ispublished in the journal Science determine the Huanan Market in Wuhan was the most likely origin of the virus, citing the virusâ likely genetic mutations and the presence of infected people and virus-positive samples near the market.
A pair of peer-reviewed studiesrelease a report saying the âmost likelyâ origin of the Covid-19 pandemic was a âresearch-related incidentâ at a lab in China, as âcritical corroborating evidence of a natural zoonotic spilloverâ from animals to humans âis missing,â and while âthe absence of evidence is not itself evidence,â it is âhighly problematicâ that a natural origins hasnât been proven three years into the pandemic.
Senate RepublicansThe Wall Street Journal and New York Times report the Department of Energy, which oversees networks of U.S. labs, has concluded with âlow confidenceâ that Covid-19 originated in a laboratory.
Big Number
2. Thatâs how many intelligence agencies, the Department of Energy and the FBI, have determined that Covid-19 was leaked from a lab, according to the Journal. The FBI came to its conclusion in 2021 with âmoderate confidence.â Four agencies have reportedly determined with âlow confidenceâ the virus was transmitted naturally through animals. The CIA and one other unnamed agency remain undecided between the two origin theories.
Key Background
While there are many labs in Wuhan, where Covid-19 cases were first reported, the Wuhan Institute of Virology has remained at the center of the lab leak theory, as one of its labs conducts coronavirus research on live bats. The theoryâs adherents usually believe the coronavirus either evolved in nature and was being studied at a lab in Wuhan before it accidentally leaked out, or was artificially created by researchers before it escapedâthough the latter theory has been heavily contested by many experts. The focus of the natural spread theory is the Huanan Market in Wuhan, where animals including bats and raccoons were sold, as many of the first reported cases were associated with this marketplace. Politics have heavily influenced the way these origin theories were initially received and investigated, as the lab leak possibility was touted by conservatives during the early days of the pandemic, often without any direct evidence. Many brushed Trumpâs claims of a lab leak off as misinformation, as he was frequently spreading false claims about the virus, including that researchers should study bleach injection as a form of fighting it. The lab leak theory has also been conflated with the idea that the virus was released on purpose as a biological weapon, an evidence-free conspiracy theory. The debate has been influenced by tense U.S.-China relations, with some of the lab leak theoryâs earliest backersâincluding Cottonâcriticizing China for a lack of transparency.
Tangent
While China became known as the source of Covid-19, whether naturally occurring or in a lab, Asian Americans experienced an increase in racism and race-targeted attacks that is generally linked to the pandemic. In 2022, the group Stop AAPI Hate reported there were nearly 11,500 reported hate incidents in the U.S. between March 19, 2020 and March 31, 2022.
Further Reading
Hereâs What Dr. Fauci Has Said About Covidâs Origins And The Lab Leak Theory (Forbes)
A Timeline Of The COVID-19 Wuhan Lab Origin Theory (Forbes)
The Lab-Leak Hypothesis (New York Magazine)
EXPLAINER: The US investigation into COVID-19 origins (Associated Press)
Meet the scientist at the center of the covid lab leak controversy (MIT Technology Review)